How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning? | Manifold

How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning?

Basic

8

Ṁ707

Jan 1

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Criteria in progress but will not delineate from this: My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information from LK-99 as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.

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https://manifold.markets/ThePhilosopher/will-texttopdf-techniques-or-llm-mo?r=VGhlUGhpbG9zb3BoZXI For those interested in sub-markets along the lines of text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning potentials.

Given this is conditional on LK-99 resolving YES, surely this can't be more than 3%?

@TheAllMemeingEye My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.

Related questions

Will text-to-PDF techniques or LLM models be able to do something akin to deductive/inductive reasoning by end of 2024?

If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Will the main LK-99 market resolve YES or NO (not NA)?

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Related questions

Will text-to-PDF techniques or LLM models be able to do something akin to deductive/inductive reasoning by end of 2024?

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?

If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

Conditional on any room-temp superconductor being replicated before 2025, will the main LK-99 market resolve YES?

Will the main LK-99 market resolve YES or NO (not NA)?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Will an LLM be able to match the ground truth >85% of the time when performing PII detection by 2024 end?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

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