How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning? | Manifold

How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning?

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Jan 1

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https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Criteria in progress but will not delineate from this: My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information from LK-99 as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.

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https://manifold.markets/ThePhilosopher/will-texttopdf-techniques-or-llm-mo?r=VGhlUGhpbG9zb3BoZXI For those interested in sub-markets along the lines of text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning potentials.

Given this is conditional on LK-99 resolving YES, surely this can't be more than 3%?

@TheAllMemeingEye My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.

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If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

Related questions

If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?

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