How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning?
Mini
8
Ṁ707
Jan 1
5%
chance

https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Criteria in progress but will not delineate from this: My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information from LK-99 as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.

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https://manifold.markets/ThePhilosopher/will-texttopdf-techniques-or-llm-mo?r=VGhlUGhpbG9zb3BoZXI For those interested in sub-markets along the lines of text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning potentials.

Given this is conditional on LK-99 resolving YES, surely this can't be more than 3%?

@TheAllMemeingEye My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.