How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning? | Manifold

How likely is LK-99 market to resolve YES due to advancements in text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning?

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https://manifold.markets/QuantumObserver/will-the-lk99-room-temp-ambient-pre

Criteria in progress but will not delineate from this: My bet is that, if someone used text-to-PDF or some kind of LLM reasoning (including any advancements in that time period within text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning) on the pre-print and companion paper before 2025, as the timeline of the market states, or any other information from LK-99 as a dataset to try and aid research directly or indirectly in replication using those techniques, it would push it to YES definitively.

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If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Related questions

If people tried text-to-PDF and LLM reasoning with the LK-99 papers, do you think it would help it replicate?

By 2025 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

By 2027, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text > human text for training LLMs?

By 2029 end, will it be generally agreed upon that LLM produced text/code > human text/code for training LLMs?

Will there be any simple text-based task that most humans can solve, but top LLMs can't? By the end of 2026

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

Will this [Major Market] Resolve YES? (gauging resolve NA or %'s probability)

Will the number of published papers on LK-99 or similar derivatives exceed 300 before 2027?

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

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