Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if official state election authorities certify that any 2026 U.S. Senate general election requires a post-general election runoff because no candidate achieved the vote threshold required by state law (such as Georgia's 50%+1 majority requirement). Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.

Resolution will be determined based on official election results published by state election authorities (e.g., the Georgia Secretary of State) or reported by major national news organizations (such as the Associated Press).

Notes and edge cases:

• Primary vs. General Runoffs: By default, this market covers general election runoffs resulting from the November 3, 2026 general election. Party primary runoff elections held earlier in the cycle to select nominees do not trigger a YES resolution unless the market creator explicitly edits the criteria to include them.

• Withdrawals: If state election officials officially call a general election runoff, the market resolves to YES regardless of whether a candidate subsequently concedes or withdraws before runoff ballots are cast.

Background

Under U.S. election law, states determine the rules for federal legislative contests. Most U.S. states elect Senators via plurality voting, where the candidate receiving the most votes wins outright on Election Day regardless of percentage.

However, Georgia requires a candidate to receive more than 50% of the vote in the November general election to avoid a runoff. If third-party or write-in candidates prevent any candidate from reaching the 50%+1 threshold, state law triggers a runoff election between the top two vote-getters. In prior election cycles, Louisiana also held general election runoffs under its nonpartisan system, but state law enacted in 2024 transitioned Louisiana federal elections to traditional party primaries starting in 2026.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.