Resolution criteria

This market tracks whether specific U.S. Senators run for re-election in the 2028 U.S. Senate elections.

Each answer (representing an individual Senator) will resolve independently:

• YES: If the Senator officially files paperwork (e.g., FEC Form 2 Statement of Candidacy or state-level equivalent) to run for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2028, and they remain an active candidate up until their state's official filing deadline.

• NO: If the Senator publicly announces their retirement, declares their candidacy for a different office (in states where they cannot run for multiple offices) instead of the Senate, or fails to file for re-election by their state’s official filing deadline.

• NO: If the Senator resigns, passes away, is removed from office, or otherwise leaves office before the filing deadline and is thus not a sitting Senator seeking re-election during the 2028 cycle.

Rules for adding answers:

• Any added candidate must be a Class III U.S. Senator whose current term expires in January 2029.

• Candidates added who are not Class III Senators (or otherwise not sitting Class III incumbents due to subsequent special appointments) will resolve to NO or as they cannot run for "re-election" to a seat they do not currently hold.

Sources for verification:

• Federal Election Commission (FEC) Candidate Search

• Ballotpedia's 2028 United States Senate elections hub

• Official state-level election division portals.

• Credible primary news sources reporting on official campaign announcements or retirement declarations.

Background

The 2028 United States Senate elections are scheduled for November 7, 2028. A total of 34 Class III seats are up for regular election (which, as of the 2024 cycle's conclusion, consist of 19 seats held by Republicans and 15 held by Democrats/independents caucusing with them). Class III Senators were last elected to full terms in 2022, and their current 6-year terms will expire on January 3, 2029. Because multiple sitting Senators will be over the age of 70 by the end of 2028, or may explore presidential or gubernatorial bids, several high-profile retirements or alternative campaigns are widely anticipated in this cycle.

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