Will the Effective Altruism movement suffer a scandal more damaging than the FTX crash by the end of 2024?
41
1kṀ5621
Dec 31
5%
chance

Resolves YES if a reputable article/blog/forum post etc. numerically shows that a scandal had a greater negative effect on donations and/or public approval than the FTX crash. Resolves to 50% if it's equally bad. Resolves NO otherwise.

Potential half-baked spit-balling worst case scenarios I'm low-key worried about:

  • Nick Bostrom publicly endorses eugenics and scientific racism

  • Peter Singer publicly endorses legalization of bestiality

  • Any major EA figure is outed and convicted as a serial pedophile

  • A major world leader or popular celebrity publicly and extensively condemns the EA movement for misrepresentative strawmannish reasons

  • CEA is revealed to have embezzled billions of donor funds on stereotypical wasteful opulent luxury

Feel free to comment your own scenarios

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