Will Gitmo or Cecot transition from concentration camps to full blown extermination camps by the 2028 US election?
20%
chance

Gitmo here means all detention centres in US controlled Guantanamo Bay.

Cecot here means the Centre for Confinement of Terrorism in El Salvador.

Being a full blown extermination camp here means that there is verified evidence in mainstream media that >10% of US deportees sent there have been killed or sentenced to death, with killing including not only direct execution but also deaths from overworking, neglect, starvation, and disease where it is intentionally brought about by the operators of the facilities.

  • Update 2025-04-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing:

    • Initial Resolution: An initial resolution will be made soon after the market close date to avoid locking up mana unnecessarily.

    • Re-resolution: The market will be re-resolved if new, verified, reputable evidence emerges after the initial resolution.

Foreign Media Criteria:

  • Acceptable Sources: Foreign media reports are acceptable provided the sources are reputable and not known for blatant bias or untruthfulness (for example, sources that deny widely acknowledged events like the Tiananmen Square massacre or Uighur genocide would be disqualified).

  • Reputability Standard: Sources should ideally be reputable enough to be accepted as references for Wikipedia articles.

  • Edge Cases: In borderline situations, a poll of the manifold community may be used to gauge the reputability of the source.

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