There have been claims on the Internet that the new Trump administration would bring about a "trans genocide". Resolves YES if the rate of trans murders in any year between 2025 and 2028 is more than 10 times the rate in 2024. Resolves NO otherwise.
By "rate of trans murders", I mean the total number of reported murders of trans people in the USA throughout the year, divided by the number of trans people in the USA at the end of the year. Nonbinary and other gender-nonconforming people will also be included. I will use my own judgement as to which sources to trust, and expect to aggregate statistics from multiple reputable sources if there is significant disagreement.
Also automatically resolves YES if the United States federal government, or any state government, officially implements a policy in which being trans (or crossdressing, etc.) is punished by death.
1,000
3.00what data will you use to resolve? nobody seems to be tracking this on a national level besides smaller advocacy orgs, and murder statistics are likely to undercount/misidentify trans folks.
i'm trying to compile some statistics (and more importantly, sources) here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1BeGhJCNmHTSWxhEgJLzF_-zhtWhrHy7wxcXqgp8ZqN4/edit?usp=sharing
i propose that as resolution criteria, we use median(A,B,C), where
A = Human Rights Campaign
B = TGEU Transgender Murder Monitoring Project
C = Trans Rememberance Project
All three of these are from advocacy orgs, all of these are specific to the USA, and all of these specifically document violence towards transgender victims. Unfortunately, all of these rely on friends-of-friends reporting trans violence to these orgs via wond of mouth, so are wildly undercounting. I don't know how overlapping their data sources are, but all have slightly different numbers. Without nationally tracked statistics, it's harder to be more concrete.
Under this criteria, median(A,B,C) for 2024 = 30, so there would need to be 300 or more murders reported by the median of these sources for a YES resolution.
Time series by year, median(A,B,C) =
2015: 21.5
2016: 24.5
2017: 27
2018: 26.5
2019: 28
2020: 37
2021: 57.5
2022: 44
2023: 35
2024: 30,
see my spreadsheet above. In my nonexpert opinion, I'd characterize the data as "roughly linear-ish since 1970-2010, exponential from 2010-2021, falling off since then"
@KimberlyWilberLIgt thanks for the data. I'll probably check more than three sources if there's disagreement on whether it's >10x.
Too direct. I expect at least a 10x increase in trans death, however:
Transgender identity will not be legally recognized, so there will be no official data about it
Most of it will be a mixture of suicide and deaths from ambiguous causes like exposure, heat stroke, and treatable medical issues. A significant number of these will occur in prison. A non trivial but inherently anecdotal number of deaths will also be wrongly classified as suicide.
If trans people are executed in increased number it will be for drug dealing (including of newly scheduled hormones and hormone suppressants), and alleged crimes against children.
Police involved deaths of transgender people will also increase but these will also be deniable consequences of resisting arrest, firearms brandishing, and similar.
Agreed that the government criminalizing being trans would increase risk of death in ways beyond just direct murder.
I note that as for 3, I would still resolve YES if the government executes people for possession or use of trans-related drugs (although not for selling them). The same would apply if they execute people for crossdressing/drag in front of children, although I assume you're talking more about falsely accusing trans people of raping children.