@Bayesian this market is an actual hell nightmare, it should have been dependent. At least it's a profitable hell nightmare

@TheAgency you are not betting remotely strategically, this is insane, what

The Agency believes the following is the optimal distribution of the 13 logos

exactly 1 reference to Manifold
exactly 1 reference to itself (the Agency is itself manifold (not Manifold, just manifold), and several of the existing options are also the Agency)

exactly 4 iconic American brands

exactly 2 tech companies that have raised a lot of money

exactly 2 tech companies that have not raised a lot of money

exactly 2 nonprofit organisations

exactly 2 political entities

exactly 3 items of overlap. I would consider Google and Apple to match 2 of the above categories, OpenAI to match 3, Anthropic to match 1, and can clarify questions.

doing the math, that leaves 2 wildcards, logos that match none of the above conditions

Feel free to do the Agency's work for it.

Generally we want to bet all options down to about 13%, right? Since there can be 100 total options, and only 13 can resolve yes.

it's possible for the winner to choose to use a QR code in place of their actual logo

alright, it's time to make some announcements


some form of Aella will win

some form of Manifold will win

exactly one of OpenAI or Anthropic will win.

it's our choice

https://sfstandard.com/2024/01/26/san-francisco-progressive-supervisor-aaron-peskin-not-running-mayor/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aella_(influencer)

https://manifold.markets/agency/what-logos-will-be-on-the-agencys-f?referrer=agency

(edited 2/11 2a pt) https://www.spellbound.io/

This Billboard will run for at least 4 weeks in San Francisco, starting roughly April.

The Agency has sole discretion over the design of the Billboard.

You need not be affiliated with the Organization to use its logo.

Submit links that are associated with a logo. Your personal website is fine as long as its exact destination link contains a logo or photo of you.

Twitter or Manifold profile links are encouraged, as are Manifold Love profiles or Instagram ones.

Edit: Exactly 13 answers will be chosen, by percentage from highest to lowest. The top answer will be 4 times the size of the next 4, and 9 times the size of the next 8. The bottom right will be a QR code.

The market's close date will be whenever The Agency has learned everything they can from this market and is ready to make the billboard.

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ24,567
2		Ṁ11,938
3		Ṁ9,370
4		Ṁ2,343
5		Ṁ2,170

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