This Billboard will run for at least 4 weeks in San Francisco, starting roughly April.
The Agency has sole discretion over the design of the Billboard.
You need not be affiliated with the Organization to use its logo.
Submit links that are associated with a logo. Your personal website is fine as long as its exact destination link contains a logo or photo of you.
Twitter or Manifold profile links are encouraged, as are Manifold Love profiles or Instagram ones.
Edit: Exactly 13 answers will be chosen, by percentage from highest to lowest. The top answer will be 4 times the size of the next 4, and 9 times the size of the next 8. The bottom right will be a QR code.
The market's close date will be whenever The Agency has learned everything they can from this market and is ready to make the billboard.
1,000
3.00After some discussion, we've mod resolved all the remaining options to N/A in this and all the other agency markets.
There will likely be a lot of community guideline changes in the near future, hopefully they will cover situations like this more clearly so traders will know how they should trade in future cases of market creators going off the rails.
At the time this market was going on, the guidelines and mod tools made it a lot harder to intervene in messy markets like this. If this happened again today we'd be able to deal with it a lot better, and hopefully that trend will continue.
After some discussion, we've mod resolved all the remaining options to N/A in this and all the other agency markets.
There will likely be a lot of community guideline changes in the near future, hopefully they will cover situations like this more clearly so traders will know how they should trade in future cases of market creators going off the rails.
At the time this market was going on, the guidelines and mod tools made it a lot harder to intervene in messy markets like this. If this happened again today we'd be able to deal with it a lot better, and hopefully that trend will continue.
@Joshua Are there also plans to re-resolve any of the YES/NO/% resolutions to N/A? Most of the resolutions were explicitly contradictory with the stated market description
⚠Closing temporarily
📢 I may get in trouble for doing this, but I feel this is best for the moment for Admin/Core Team/Community Manager Review. I have posted to see how to handle this to protect traders/users of Manifold.
📢If you would like more information, join the Discord. I do not believe it is fair to the creator to post further information here out of their respect given the circumstances.
02-12-24 Update: The creator reopened and started to resolve. Eliza posted an update on their perspective.
This is my response.
@SirCryptomind First this was slated to resolve “top 10 at close”. Then it was “top 13 at close”. Then it was “top 11 and these 2 random ones I decided to resolve early, but no more early resolutions I promise”. Then it was “top 8 and these 5 random ones I decided to resolve early, plus completely changing some answers after people have bet on them”.
This market has been nothing but bait and switch on investors, and if it doesn’t get shut down, I expect additional lies from the creator. Tolerating this kind of behavior is bad for the platform.
imo this very broad class of not-great markets should N/A in general, but manifold hasn't N/Aed any of them in the past so in some sense it'd be unfair to N/A this. (I haven't profited meaningfully or lost meaingfully from this). i don't think the unfairness matters much
@JimHays Here is my perspective.
Given the scope of the entire situation, I'm not going to immediately take any action, but this is what I think should be done. Note that some parts of this are explicitly in the community/mod guidelines and some parts are not, and the parts that are not are just my own opinion.
The market should be immediately unlisted. This prevents further 'harm' (user confusion) to the platform from additional users discovering the market and betting before realizing it is not behaving like we expect most markets to behave. That won't change much for the 50+ users who have already participated, but "There is an active rug-pull going on and you're invited" is not actually a prediction game, it's just irritating and annoying.
From my reading, at least some answers on the market have been resolved in a way that is not consistent with the criteria in the description. In cases of a creator "blatantly misresolving" a market, moderators are given the go-ahead to correct the situation by changing resolutions and/or reopening markets for trading. However, in this market type (unlinked multiple choice), we have no tools to change resolutions after they are made. I can't do anything about the answers that have already resolved. It would be possible to do this but we would need James or Ian to manually send commands to the database to undo this trading, there are no tools for it.
Given the creator has also reopened trading after @SirCryptomind closed trading, the only tool we have left to manage this market is to close trading on all existing answers. Once all answers are closed, trading will not be able to resume. So "resolve everything still open to N/A" is a reasonable step that we could take. It would potentially claw back realized gains from some users, but it seems like almost any potential resolution to a probability on these answers is going to be hard to justify.
If it was possible to continue running the market as a whalebait market in the absence of the creator until the original closing date, that is probably what my first choice would be, but I can't even figure out how many whalebait answers will resolve Yes given the number that have already done so. As @jacksonpolack points out, many cases like this have been dealt with in a pretty hands-off way, but there have definitely been times where we just N/A a market and move on from it when creators are not following the criteria they set forth.
I think it's appropriate to tag @SirSalty (or @Austin) so they know and understand that users are not happy with the situation and moderators feel like there are few options left to them.
@Eliza I Unlisted it, not that it helps this late, but I did it.
I understand and accept any punishment if I get pushback from it from admin/core team.
@Eliza ah I was going to spend more time looking at this later after talking with Barak after seeing it had been closed. Hadn't realised it's been reopened. Thanks to both you and @SirCryptomind for taking the actions you have.
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@ManifoldPolitics this is starting to sound like a conspiracy.. is barak, manifold politics, and the agency somehow all interconnected?!?
@ManifoldPolitics is influential so it'll even share some of those decisions with you.
Anthropic will win one of the 13 spots.
Aella said she's happy to be crowned a winner. Between onlyfans, twitter, and manifold, her gut reaction was that she'd go with x.com but she can obviously reach out to the agency (manifold) and choose her preferred CTA...
Also, we're gonna do a favor to the SF Standard, which sent a wonderful reporter to cover our event. We hope she had a great time, but either way we're hoping The SF Standard makes the cut. Notice that any SF Standard article could win, not just the only one there now. Anyone can edit their own answers (I believe?)
@ManifoldPolitics editing an option to make it a different option after people have bet is totally not cool, though! but thanks for the 10,000M donation by the way, much appreciated. if it's to keep me quiet on the conspiracy I'm slowly peeling the layers of, lmk
@Bayesian I think we'll make sure to pay them off, esp if they made a big bet. They could just ask the @agency for restitution if they're upset. The @agency will handle it.