Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a likely Season Ending Injury

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

WRs score more TDs than RBs (receiving + rushing for both)

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

Any player throws for more than 310 yards and loses

A team scores at least 24 points before halftime

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 2 TDs (including passing)

4th and Goal from the 1 or shorter stopped

 Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT (tying or go-ahead)

 A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game*

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

 LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Add your own props related to Week Six (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Six finishes, but not later than that.

Denver Broncos beat New Orleans Saints (10/17) 8:15 PM (Prime)

New England Patriots beat Jacksonville Jaguars (10/20) 9:30 AM (NFL Network)

Detroit Lions beat Minnesota Vikings (10/20) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Tennessee Titans beat Buffalo Bills (10/20) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Miami Dolphins beat Indianapolis Colts (10/20) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Seattle Seahawks beat Atlanta Falcons (10/20) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Houston Texans beat Green Bay Packers (10/20) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cincinnati Bengals beat Cleveland Browns (10/20) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Philadelphia Eagles beat New York Giants (10/20) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Las Vegas Raiders beat Los Angeles Rams (10/20) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Carolina Panthers beat Washington Commanders (10/20) 4:05 PM (CBS)

Kansas City Chiefs beat San Francisco 49ers (10/20) 4:25 PM (FOX)

New York Jets beat Pittsburgh Steelers (10/20) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Baltimore Ravens beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10/21) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Arizona Cardinals (10/21) 9:00 PM (ESPN)

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Tournament decided by the last play of the 5th game of the final

50 or more total kills in one or more games

More infernal drakes killed than any other type

Team recovers to win after "3 inhibitor down" state

6 or fewer total kills in one or more games

Player with twelve or more deaths in one game

Rumble picked or banned >=95% of all games

Start time of final delayed by >= 30 minutes for any unplanned reason

Team wins game without losing any turrets, drakes, voids, rifts, or barons

North American team advances to semifinals

Manifold introduces a Sweepstakes market involving the World Championship

Peyz advances to playoffs and has highest KDA among all players advancing to playoffs

Here's a collection of prop bets for the 2024 League of Legends World Championship!

One new bet will be added every day, so check back often!

if they occur at any time before the conclusion of the tournament's last game.  They all resolve to 

 if the tournament doesn't conclude before December 31, 2024, and to 

Oakland A’s [even if they no longer play in Oakland]

At the conclusion of the 2024 MLB postseason, who will win the World Series?

Note: Regardless if teams move cities during the 2023-2024 offseason, your vote for them will still count.

To be judged as an LLM made by a Chinese organization that ties or surpasses the leading LLM by OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google on the 

China is significantly investing in the development of large language models (LLMs) and is home to many AI-oriented companies and LLM applications. Chinese tech giants like Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and SenseTime have already released their GAI products, and the Chinese government aims to be an AI leader by the 2030s. While there isn't direct information indicating whether China will surpass or match OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by the end of 2024, given the substantial investments and efforts, it's plausible that China will remain competitive in the LLM race.

Concurrently, the progress and development of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google in the LLM race have been rapid. OpenAI led the initial LLM boom with its GPT-3 model, Anthropic is focusing on making LLMs more transparent, safe, and beneficial, and Google's Pathways AI model has surpassed GPT-3 in terms of parameters. This suggests that the race in LLM development continues to be highly competitive.

Will China be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google by end of 2024?

What are China's current advancements and investments in the field of LLM?

What is the pace of progress and development of OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google in the LLM race?

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Otherwise, this question will be resolved as "

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

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