Resolves to the winning team. The game between Philadelphia Eagles (home) and Green Bay Packers (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-12 at 21:30:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) and Washington Commanders (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-13 at 01:00:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

Los Angeles Chargers beat Houston Texans (01/11) 4:30 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Baltimore Ravens (01/11) 8:00 PM (Prime)

Denver Broncos beat Buffalo Bills (01/12) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Green Bay Packers beat Philadelphia Eagles (01/12) 4:30 PM (FOX)

Washington Commanders beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers (01/12) 8:15 PM (NBC)

Minnesota Vikings beat LA Rams (01/13) 8:20 PM (ESPN)

Wildcard Round. Divisional Round. Conference Championship. Super Bowl.

Get ready for an exhilarating season of football!

 (⭐4.96) for lightning-fast market resolutions and surprise market liquidity boosts all year long. Don't miss out—join the excitement today!

Resolves to the team which wins the 2024-2025 AFC Championship.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Associated_Press_NFL_Most_Valuable_Player_Award

Resolves to the winning team. The game between Buffalo Bills (home) and Denver Broncos (away) is scheduled for 2025-01-12 at 18:00:00 GMT. If the game is delayed, the market will be extended. If the game is cancelled, tied, or unexpected circumstances prevent a clear winner, this market may be resolved to 50%-50%.

OpenAI flagship language model (ie. gpt-5)

 = available to some portion of the public (including a subset of subscribers or a limited number of API developers from members of the public). Released only for safety testing does

 = Either announced by the company as a new model, is clear from numbering/naming it is a distinct model, or able to be selected from some sort of menu as a distinct model. Something like "o1 extra mini" would count as while it is part of o1 it can be considered a distinct model in this market.

Please note that any model which came out this month prior to market creation will not count (a new model from the company should come out for the answer to resolve to yes). For example Nvidia's recently released AI called Cosmos will not count towards this market.

Must be released before January 31st 11:59pm PST. If it is announced but not yet released to any members of the public it will not count.

refers to any model that is not their new flagship model (eg. gpt 5), o3, or o3-mini, a video generator, or an image generator. It could be a derivative of another language model or some other type of model such as a voice generator.

 refers to a model comparable to claude 3.5 or gpt-4o that should outperform claude 3.5 sonnet on a majority of performance benchmarks. This should not be a reasoning model.

refers to a model that is not considered their everyday task model and is akin to what OpenAI's O1 is to gpt-4o. 

refers to any model that is not a reasoning model nor their new flagship model. For example, it could be a derivative of an existing language model or a different type of AI model entirely.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance

Restricted in the US and owned by ByteDance

This market takes into consideration the status of TikTok on April 1st, 00:00 PST. So any upcoming bans/acquisitions will not matter if they aren't legally finalised and already in place.

" if the vast majority of the public can still legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US and visit 

Usable by the public and not owned by ByteDance" 

if the above criteria are true, however majority ownership is held by a company that is not ByteDance Ltd. This could include a new company formed with ties to ByteDance.

" if the vast majority of the public can not legally download TikTok from major app stores in the US, can not watch content on their TikTok app, and can not access 

" if meaningful restrictions have been put into place but some US residents can still legally access some TikTok content. Note that any existing restrictions, such as those on government employees, will not be taken into account. This could include, but is not limited to:

" if TikTok no longer exists as its own app and has been acquired or merged with another company's platform. Note that this is similar to "Usable by the public and owned by ByteDance

however, the distinct difference is that for this option TikTok should no longer exist as its own app/website in the US (an archive version of some sort would not count). 

: If it is first banned, and then in response they integrated by April 1st then it will resolve to this answer and not completely banned.

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

This market resolves YES if someone publishes a working quantum circuit implementation that successfully factors 77 into 7 and 11 using IBM's cloud quantum computing service before March 1st, 2025. The implementation must be publicly available (e.g. on GitHub, arXiv, or similar platform) and verifiably demonstrate successful factorization on IBM's platform. Resolution will be based on public announcements, academic publications, or verifiable GitHub repositories showing working code.

OpenAI's original definition for AGI is as follows:

Here is a diagram illustrating the governance structure of OpenAI:

The following is a quote from the original post by OpenAI, 

An action that would "hint at" OpenAI achieving AGI would be the exclusion of a specific state of the art AI system from IP licenses and other commercial terms with Microsoft while their partnership with Microsoft remains more or less the same structurally (although the composition might change). 

Same market for a longer time-frame is below:

Ban transgender women from participating in women sports

End birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants through executive action

Terminate federal funding for gender affirming care

Try to get back the $175M bail he posted in April 2024

Pardon himself (even if this is later overturned by a court)

Pardon at least 5 named people (not as part of a group)

Ban transgender people from joining the military

Have visible whiter areas on his face because he just can’t stop fake tanning

Take credit for averting the government shutdown.

Promote his new parfum “Fight! fight! fight!”

Make male and female the only federally recognized genders

Enact any executive order primarily affecting the transgender population

Mention o1 or o3 in a speech/social media post/EO/etc

Pardon someone who has not been convinced of any crime

Make a tweet/truth that includes at least two words in ALL CAPS (no acronyms)

Take the oath of office before the term begins by law (Before Noon)

Mention any of the 80,000 Hours most pressing world problems

Resolves YES if the deadline for Bytedance to divest from the US entity TikTok is removed or extended past January 19th 2025, 23:59 ET.

If Trump arranges for TikTok’s deadline to be extended, and the extension technically begins after he takes power on the 19th, this market will still resolve Yes as long as TikTok never becomes unavailable to download for the majority of US residents. This applies even if the deadline technically runs out before the extension takes effect.

Otherwise, this market will resolve No as soon as TikTok the deadline is passed and there are no plans for an extension. If Trump has announced plans for an extension, but TikTok has become unavailable to download for any amount of time for the majority of US residents as the deadline has passed, then this market will resolve No.

“Artificial intelligence” or “AI”

“Losers” or “suckers” or “morons”

"Hannibal Lecter" or "windmill(s)" or "mental institution(s)" or "shark(s)"

"Gender," "Transgender" or "Transgenderism"

"Weak"/"Weaken"/"Weakened"/"Weakness(es)"

"Border(s)"/"Bordered"/"Bordering"/"Frontier"

"Instrument(s)"/"Instrumental"/"Instrumentally"

"Virus(es)"/"Viral"/"Disease(s)"/"Diseased"

"Prison(s)"/"Jail(s)"/"Jailed"/"Imprisoned"

"You work hard for what you want in life"

"Surrender(s)"/"Surrendered"/"Surrendering"

These options resolve YES if Donald Trump says the 

Donald Trump has expressed interest in purchasing at least part of Greenland. If the United States acquires at least part of Greenland before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves YES.

Resolves to 100% whoever is chosen as the nominee at the Democratic National Convention in 2028

Resolves to "None" if no one is nominated or if their is no convention. If for some reason the convention is postponed then this market resolves to whoever is nominated in the postponed convention. Unless the "postponed" convention takes place in or after 2032, in which case it resolves "None"

Remember to bet for "Other". Any shares held in "Other" give you free shares for answers subsequently added

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. 

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. 

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. 

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. 

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

Donald Trump has promised a 10% tariff across the board for all goods entering the United States if elected. This market will settle as YES if Donald Trump gets elected and in any one quarter of 2025, the US weighted average tariff is at least 6%. For the last quarter we have data at this time, second quarter of 2024, the number was 2.4%. It was at 3.5% at its highest level of the Trump presidency.

Data is sourced from the Federal Reserve Economic Data website (link below). This market will settle as soon as Callum Williams, senior economics writer at The Economist, has calculated the number has crossed the 6% threshold for any quarter in 2025, or it hasn’t for any of the quarters. If, when he does his calculations for the fourth quarter of 2025, the 6% threshold has not been met, this market will then settle NO. This market will settle as YES if either an initial estimate or any revision for any of the first three quarters of 2025 crosses the 6% threshold while the market is open. The fourth quarter number will be based on initial data and the market will close after that data is available at the latest. 

If Donald Trump loses the election, this market will settle as N/A. If Donald Trump wins the election but a different president takes office at any point, this market will settle according to the same rules based on the US weighted tariff average for each quarter. 

If Callum Williams is unavailable to conduct the analysis, a suitable replacement will be found.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1wn5e

Will the Palisades fire be "50% contained" before Monday Jan 13th?

Will the Palisades fire be 90% contained before Monday Jan 13th?

Will the Palisades fire be 90% contained before Monday Jan 20th?

Will all fires be 50% contained before Monday Jan 13th?

Will all fires be 90% contained before Monday Jan 20th?

Will all fires be 90% contained by Feb 1st?

Will this be biggest fire in California history by damage / insurance claims?

Will more than 10,000 houses be destroyed?

Will California National Guard be called up?

Will army or navy be deployed (at least 100 troops deployed)?

Will state of emergency be lifted by Feb 1st?

Will significant parts of Santa Monica be evacuated?

Will any of the fires spread to Beverly Hills?

Will there be a significant fire in Orange County?

Will any major LA area airport (LAX/BUR/SNA/ONT) shut down or cancel all flights for more than 2 hours?

Will another major fire start after those four burning on Wednesday morning?

Will there be significant rain in Los Angeles before Feb 1st?

Will Los Angeles air quality return to "normal" or "elevated" levels before Feb 1st?

Will Mayor Karen Bass resign by April 1st?

Will significant parts of UCLA campus be evacuated?

Will any of the fires reach Bel Air Country Club?

Will the Rams / Vikings playoff game be moved out of Los Angeles? 🏈

Will the Palisades Fire spread into Santa Monica before Monday Jan 13th? (according to official fire map)

Will all LA public schools closed due to fires be reopened by Feb 1? (except those destroyed by fire)

The first started on Tuesday Jan 7th and devastated Malibu, Pacific Palisades, parts of Pasadena and several other communities.

As of Wednesday afternoon, the fire are "0% contained" and there are four major fires burning across the Los Angeles area.

We will create questions here about the fires. When will they be contained? What cities will be evacuated? When will air quality return to "normal"?

Please suggest good questions in the comments.

If there is a similar Polymarket question -- we will follow their resolution criteria, whenever possible. If not we will use common sense and logic. 

https://deepnewz.com/natural-disasters/two-dead-80000-evacuated-palisades-eaton-fires-destroy-1000-structures-400bd1af

All times will be midnight Pacific. So "by Feb 1st" means this resolves as soon as it is Feb 1st (midnight) in California.

This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question. (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")

This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject. For exactly when it will resolve, see 

I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another. As some additional assurance, see 

(For comparison, the level of evidence in favor of anthropogenic climate change would be sufficient, despite the existence of a few doubts here and there.)

If we never reach a point where I can safely be that confident either way, it'll remain open indefinitely. (And Manifold lends you your mana back after a few months, so this doesn't negatively impact you.)

"Come from a laboratory" includes both an accidental lab leak and an 

. It also counts if COVID was found in the wild, taken to a lab for study, and then escaped from that lab without any modification. It just needs to have actually been "in the lab" in a meaningful way. A lab worker who was out collecting samples and got contaminated in the wild doesn't count, but it does count if they got contaminated later from a sample that was supposed to be safely contained.

In the event of multiple progenitors, this market resolves YES only if the lab leak was plausibly responsible for the worldwide pandemic. It won't count if the pandemic primarily came from natural sources and then there was also a lab leak that only infected a few people.

Resolves "Yes" if the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Doomsday Clock at 

 is set closer to midnight by the end of January 2025 than the end of January 2024.

-If the clock is at the exact same time as 2024 (90 seconds) this resolves NO.

-If the bulletin doesn't release a statement on the clock's new time by the end of February (PST) then this market will resolve to 50%.

An anonymous Twitter user has claimed without evidence that, working with whistleblowers within the FDIC, they have obtained audio recordings of private phone calls, agency telephone meetings, and Microsoft Team meetings.

https://x.com/FDIC_Exposed/status/1878135189253284280

Market resolves to true if the statements alleged in this tweet as being present in recordings are substantially present in recordings which are authenticated by either

a) a tier one news outlet (WSJ, Bloomberg, NYTimes, etc)

b) the U.S federal government (Congressional inquiry, official act of the FDIC itself, OIG investigation, criminal indictment, etc)

Neither of the above lists are exhaustive.

Disclosure of the recordings themselves is not necessary or sufficient for this market to resolve Yes; the market focuses on authentication by a source reasonably presumed to have access to the recordings and a presumption of probity.

Not all recordings need to be authenticated; Yes holders are buying "whistleblowers are clearly making lots of recordings and strategically leaking them to Twitter anons", No holders are buying "this is a shitpoast." I will resolve the market subjectively on this score, taking into account trading prices. Participants in this market may wish to note that I am broadly crypto-skeptical but considered honest.

The truth or falsity of claims made on the recordings is not the focus of this market. As a non-limiting example, authentication of a recording alleging a romantic relationship being used to punish a whistleblower will cause this market to resolve to Yes irrespective of whether any romantic relationship or scheme to punish happened.

I may trade in this market. A few years ago I would have been a zero; my opening bid, which I will make within 24 hours, is 2.

Market default resolves to No at EOY 2025.

Edit to add: As a courtesy to market participants, I have archived the tweet here:

https://media.kalzumeus.com/misc/fdic-exposed-tweet-archive.md

SHA512 hash of that file is 95bd7d26d1bda49db714574a7ff25e0ef704e9e85422866888dfe9cec219f5a9b95618b5267a9fb551cb491c113f2972e1616ab8d86847f64836ca49019608fa

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