The World Chess Championship 2024 will be a chess match to determine the World Chess Champion. It will be played between the defending champion, Ding Liren from China, and the challenger, Gukesh D from India.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Los Angeles Rams beat San Francisco 49ers (12/12) 8:15 PM (Prime)

Washington Commanders beat New Orleans Saints (12/15) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Kansas City Chiefs beat Cleveland Browns (12/15) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Cincinnati Bengals beat Tennessee Titans (12/15) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Miami Dolphins beat Houston Texans (12/15) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Baltimore Ravens beat New York Giants (12/15) 1:00 PM (FOX)

New York Jets beat Jacksonville Jaguars (12/15) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Dallas Cowboys beat Carolina Panthers (12/15) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Los Angeles Chargers (12/15) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Indianapolis Colts beat Denver Broncos (12/15) 4:25 PM (CBS)

New England Patriots beat Arizona Cardinals (12/15) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Buffalo Bills beat Detroit Lions (12/15) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Pittsburgh Steelers beat Philadelphia Eagles (12/15) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Green Bay Packers beat Seattle Seahawks (12/15) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Chicago Bears beat Minnesota Vikings (12/16) 8:00 PM (ESPN)

Atlanta Falcons beat Las Vegas Raiders (12/16) 8:30 PM (ESPN)

resolves YES if he wins, NO if he loses or draws

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

A model with name containing ‘GPT-4.5’ or ‘GPT-5’ is revealed.

New paid tier of ChatGPT, costing >$25/month, revealed

Reveal a model with 1,000,000+ context length

Something that Gary Marcus reacts positively to (sentiment analyzed by ChatGPT)

Agent model (can perform virtual tasks) revealed

Chain of thought on image tokens / visual scratchpad

Image generation with reasoning / inference-time scaling

A model called GPT-5 (or similar) is released

An interpretability-based paper or product

Cursor/Copilot style IDE tool for pair programming 

An AI-rendered video game (see my recent market for details)

A second model (besides o1) with a number X in the name is revealed/released on day X

Code sandbox for Canvas with code execution

ChatGPT Projects (similar to Claude Projects)

Something as significant as the September o1 announcement (as per a poll)

Something as significant as the Sora announcement (as per a poll)

Something as significant as the launch of ChatGPT (as per a poll)

A second, more advanced version of Sora is revealed

PC or mac voice input mode (it augments keyboard input with data from AI/LLM) on laptop or desktop 

Improvementz to their beta Evaluations feature

A model with the number X in the name is revealed/released on day 2X

OpenAI has just announced the “12 Days of OpenAI”, a series of 12 livestreams with new announcements. What will they announce during this?

https://x.com/openai/status/1864328928267259941?s=46

“Released” = available to some random members of the public, or an announcement that it will be available before December 31

“Revealed” = the thing is shown to exist, but not necessarily available to the public

Possible clarification from creator (AI generated)

Note the resolution criteria—what matters is the change in the count of federal employees, not whether we can confirm Trump and/or Elon directly fired them. For reference, the specific chart Kalshi links to appears to be 

 which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected, OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2, and 3. I 

wonder which company will be #1 at the end of 2024. 

Screenshot of the rankings table taken on the 13th of December: 

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

In case there is no information for a long period of time, will close in the Summer of 2025. Answers with no new information will be N/A’ed in order to not tie up mana indefinitely.

All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For  questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.

The Mana version will be resolved according to the following rules. If you have any questions or if any resolution criteria or edge cases are unclear, please ask before trading. Otherwise, the Mana version will be resolved based on my judgement. Note that the Mana version may resolve differently from the Sweepstakes version.

 as the Person of the Year for this market to resolve as YES. For example, if TIME Magazine’s 2024 Person of the Year is named as "Donald J. Trump," "Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance," "Donald J. Trump and The Grand Old Party," or "Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk," this market will resolve as YES. However, if the Person of the Year is identified as a group or entity that does not directly name Trump, such as "All Americans" or "The Grand Old Party," this market will resolve as NO.

This question specifically pertains to Donald John Trump, born on June 14, 1946, the 45th President of the United States and winner of the 2024 US election. If another person, such as Donald Trump Jr., is named without the explicit inclusion of Donald J. Trump, the market will resolve as NO. (“Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.” would still resolve as YES)

The close date for this market will be adjusted to the evening before TIME Magazine announces the Person of the Year (POTY). Liquidity might be reduced earlier.

This market will settle as YES if at least three individuals that Trump nominates for cabinet positions that must be confirmed by the Senate are either withdrawn or voted down in the Senate. Cabinet officials refers to the 15 heads of government agencies, along with cabinet-level officials, which for the purposes of this market includes the Administrator of the EPA, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP. 

A nomination occurs as soon as President Trump announces an intention to nominate someone. No other step is necessary to be taken. No official step must be taken to withdraw a nominee either. Credible reporting that the administration will not longer be pursuing the nomination is enough. 

This market will settle as NO as soon as all the relevant positions are confirmed, or if the conditions of YES have not been met by March 31, 2025.  

The nominees that fail need not be all nominated for different positions. If, for example, Trump has three Attorney General nominees that fail, this market will resolve as YES. 

If Donald Trump does not become president or stops being president, this market resolves according to what happens to the nominees of whoever happens to be president during the relevant time period. The nominees of two or more people serving as president will be counted together. If, for example, Trump appoints an AG who is withdrawn and then Vance becomes president and two of his nominees are withdrawn, this market will settle as YES. 

Joe Biden and/or Kamala Harris (or any Dem ticket)

Artificial Intelligence (or any AI company, concept, etc)

The Victims of War (or any related abstract / group)

The Supreme Court (or any judges / related concept)

Trump Prosecutors (e.g. Jack Smith, Fanni WIllis)

RFK Jr. (Independent Presidential Candidate)

Jerome Powell (Chair of the Federal Reserve)

Union Workers (or any related concept / group)

Mohammed bin Salman (Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia)

This question resolves to the TIME 2024 Person of The Year. This was most recently won by Taylor Swift, Volodymyr Zelenskyy & The Spirit of Ukraine, Elon Musk, and Joe Biden & Kamala Harris. You can see all previous winners 

This market uses consolidated answers to avoid having to predict who the major party nominees will be, or the exact wording of any abstract/group answers. If multiple options do end up being true based on TIME choosing something like "Donald Trump and The Supreme Court", then those options will resolve to an even split of 100% (50%-50%, in that example). You can find more edge-case rules in my 

You can submit suggestions for people to add here:

resolves yes if trump steps foot in russia by the end of his term

 President Yoon Suk Yeol has been impeached as defined in point 1 above, with both the National Assembly’s passage of the impeachment motion and the Constitutional Court’s confirmation occurring 

before 11:59 PM Korean Standard Time (KST) on January 2nd, 2025

 President Yoon Suk Yeol resigns from office 

 the National Assembly passes an impeachment motion against him but 

 the Constitutional Court reaches a decision, and this resignation occurs before the deadline.

 The National Assembly does not pass an impeachment motion against President Yoon Suk Yeol before the deadline.

Impeachment Motion Not Confirmed or No Resignation:

 An impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly but is not confirmed by the Constitutional Court before the deadline, and President Yoon Suk Yeol does 

 any impeachment motion is passed by the National Assembly.

 President Yoon Suk Yeol leaves office due to death, incapacitation, or any method other than the impeachment process defined above.

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