Counting all games after the regular season, including Wild Card and its Play-In.

Buffalo Sabres beat New Jersey Devils 12pm Oct 4

New Jersey Devils beat Buffalo Sabres 9am Oct 5

Seattle Kraken beat St. Louis Blues 3:30pm Oct 8

Florida Panthers beat Boston Bruins 6pm Oct 8

Utah Hockey Club beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 8

Montreal Canadiens beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 9

Pittsburgh Penguins beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 9

Edmonton Oilers beat Winnipeg Jets 9pm Oct 9

Vancouver Canucks beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 9

Vegas Golden beat Knights Colorado Avalanche 9pm Oct 9

Boston Bruins beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 10

Buffalo Sabres beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 10

New Jersey Devils beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6pm Oct 10

Ottawa Senators beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 10

New York Islanders beat Utah Hockey Club 6:30pm Oct 10

Detroit Red Wings beat Pittsburgh Penguins 7pm Oct 10

Minnesota Wild beat Columbus Blue Jackets 7pm Oct 10

Nashville Predators beat Dallas Stars 7pm Oct 10

San Jose Sharks beat St. Louis Blues 9:30pm Oct 10

Carolina Hurricanes beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6pm Oct 11

Winnipeg Jets beat Chicago Blackhawks 7pm Oct 11

Vancouver Canucks beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 11

Vegas Golden Knights beat St. Louis Blues 9pm Oct 11

Boston Bruins beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 12

Buffalo Sabres beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 12

Detroit Red Wings beat Nashville Predators 6pm Oct 12

Montreal Canadiens beat Ottawa Senators 6pm Oct 12

New York Rangers beat Utah Hockey Club 6pm Oct 12

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 12

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6pm Oct 12

Washington Capitals beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 12

Dallas Stars beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 12

Minnesota Wild beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 12

Colorado Avalanche beat Columbus Blue Jackets 8pm Oct 12

Calgary Flames beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 12

Edmonton Oilers beat Chicago Blackhawks 9pm Oct 12

San Jose Sharks beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 12

Winnipeg Jets beat Minnesota Wild 5pm Oct 13

Dallas Stars beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 13

Edmonton Oilers beat Calgary Flames 7pm Oct 13

Vegas Golden Knights beat Anaheim Ducks 9pm Oct 13

Boston Bruins beat Florida Panthers 12pm Oct 14

New Jersey Devils beat Utah Hockey Club 12pm Oct 14

Ottawa Senators beat Los Angeles Kings 12pm Oct 14

New York Rangers beat Detroit Red Wings 6pm Oct 14

Montreal Canadiens beat Pittsburgh Penguins 6:30pm Oct 14

Colorado Avalanche beat New York Islanders 8pm Oct 14

Carolina Hurricanes beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 15

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Florida Panthers 6pm Oct 15

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 15

Washington Capitals beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 15

St. Louis Blues beat Minnesota Wild 6:30pm Oct 15

Dallas Stars beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 15

Nashville Predators beat Seattle Kraken 7pm Oct 15

Calgary Flames beat Chicago Blackhawks 8pm Oct 15

Edmonton Oilers beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 15

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 16

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Los Angeles Kings 6:30pm Oct 16

Colorado Avalanche beat Boston Bruins 8:30pm Oct 16

Anaheim Ducks beat Utah Hockey Club 9pm Oct 16

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Buffalo Sabres 6pm Oct 17

Florida Panthers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 17

Montreal Canadiens beat Los Angeles Kings 6pm Oct 17

Ottawa Senators beat New Jersey Devils 6pm Oct 17

Tampa Bay Lightning beat Vegas Golden Knights 6pm Oct 17

Washington Capitals beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 17

Detroit Red Wings beat New York Rangers 6:30pm Oct 17

Nashville Predators beat Edmonton Oilers 7pm Oct 17

St. Louis Blues beat New York Islanders 7pm Oct 17

Chicago Blackhawks beat San Jose Sharks 7:30pm Oct 17

Seattle Kraken beat Philadelphia Flyers 9pm Oct 17

Pittsburgh Penguins beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 18

Winnipeg Jets beat San Jose Sharks 7pm Oct 18

Colorado Avalanche beat Anaheim Ducks 8pm Oct 18

Ottawa Senators beat Tampa Bay Lightning 12pm Oct 19

Nashville Predators beat Detroit Red Wings 1pm Oct 19

Dallas Stars beat Edmonton Oilers 3pm Oct 19

Florida Panthers beat Vegas Golden Knights 5pm Oct 19

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Minnesota Wild 6pm Oct 19

New Jersey Devils beat Washington Capitals 6pm Oct 19

New York Islanders beat Montreal Canadiens 6pm Oct 19

Philadelphia Flyers beat Vancouver Canucks 6pm Oct 19

St. Louis Blues beat Carolina Hurricanes 6pm Oct 19

Toronto Maple Leafs beat New York Rangers 6pm Oct 19

Chicago Blackhawks beat Buffalo Sabres 7pm Oct 19

Utah Hockey Club beat Boston Bruins 8pm Oct 19

Seattle Kraken beat Calgary Flames 9pm Oct 19

Winnipeg Jets beat Pittsburgh Penguins 2pm Oct 20

Anaheim Ducks beat Los Angeles Kings 7pm Oct 20

San Jose Sharks beat Colorado Avalanche 7pm Oct 20

Toronto Maple Leafs beat Tampa Bay Lightning 6:30pm Oct 21

Philadelphia Flyers beat Washington Capitals 5pm Oct 22

Florida Panthers beat Minnesota Wild 5:30pm Oct 22

New Jersey Devils beat Tampa Bay Lightning 5:45pm Oct 22

Buffalo Sabres beat Dallas Stars 6pm Oct 22

Montreal Canadiens beat New York Rangers 6:15pm Oct 22

Columbus Blue Jackets beat Toronto Maple Leafs 6:30pm Oct 22

New York Islanders beat Detroit Red Wings 6:45pm Oct 22

St. Louis Blues beat Winnipeg Jets 7pm Oct 22

Chicago Blackhawks beat Vancouver Canucks 7:15pm Oct 22

Houston Texans beat New York Jets (10/31) 8:15 PM (Prime)

New Orleans Saints beat Carolina Panthers (11/03) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Washington Commanders beat New York Giants (11/03) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Miami Dolphins beat Buffalo Bills (11/03) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Los Angeles Chargers beat Cleveland Browns (11/03) 1:00 PM (CBS)

New England Patriots beat Tennessee Titans (11/03) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Indianapolis Colts beat Minnesota Vikings (11/03) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Dallas Cowboys beat Atlanta Falcons (11/03) 1:00 PM (FOX)

Las Vegas Raiders beat Cincinnati Bengals (11/03) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Denver Broncos beat Baltimore Ravens (11/03) 1:00 PM (CBS)

Chicago Bears beat Los Angeles Rams (11/03) 4:05 PM (FOX)

Seattle Seahawks beat Arizona Cardinals (11/03) 4:25 PM (CBS)

Green Bay Packers beat Detroit Lions (11/03) 4:25 PM (FOX)

Jacksonville Jaguars beat Philadelphia Eagles (11/03) 8:20 PM (NBC)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat Kansas City Chiefs (11/04) 8:15 PM (ESPN)

Original title: Will a New York team win the World Series?

Resolves YES if the New York Yankees or New York Mets win the World Series. Will resolve YES right away if the Yankees and Mets both win their League Championship Series, and will resolve NO right away if they both fail to win their League Championship Series.

If the result is tied after the games that are currently planned, and they play tiebreaker games, this will resolve to the result of the tiebreakers; otherwise it resolves NO. (i.e. because tie ≠ win). Also resolves NO if the match doesn't happen, is canceled partway through, or the results aren't publicized by a credible source. (I expect to use 

After losing to Liverpool at home, United have a -3 GD. This market resolves to yes if they have a goal difference of at least 1 in the 2024 calendar year portion of 24-25 Premier League season (around half the season).

Game Winning Drive starting in the last 2 Minutes

AFC or NFC Offensive Player of the Week is a Running Back

A Starting QB gets a put on IR in the week after the game

Player Records at least 2 Interceptions in a Game

Quarterback throws at least 4 Touchdowns in a game

Quarterback gets benched in the middle of a game

For each game, take the GCD of both teams' scores. Is the result for any game at least 8?

Any player throws for more than 300 yards and loses

Any team scores 25+ points before halftime

A QB has at least 2 turnovers and at least 2 TDs (including passing)

Will a championship belt change teams (https://shorturl.at/2bXlq) (https://shorturl.at/XwDBj)

 LA teams finish with a better record than NY teams

Bird teams finish with a better record than Cat teams

3 Missed FGs or Extra Points (from both teams combined) in a Game

Hip Drop Tackle penalty called during any game

Any player scores 3 TDs in a game (non-passing)

4th and Goal from the 1 (or inches) stopped

Score as time expires in the 4th Quarter/OT

A 1pm EST game is still going when a 4:25pm EST game starts

Highest Scoring Game of the Season (so far)* https://tinyurl.com/highestgame

For each letter of the alphabet, at least one touchdown is scored by a player that has that letter in their first or last name

A lateral more than a yard past the line of scrimmage (non-last play of the game)

Add your own props related to Week Eight (if it is super specific be prepared to help me find an answer). Answers should be able to be resolved by about a Week after Week Eight finishes, but not later than that.

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

Additional update from Manifold staff before sweepifying:

Publicly released includes if it is behind their subscription or a roll-out where some people have access and some are still waiting. If it's publicly released but only for API access this will still resolve YES. Dates for this market are in PST.

[invalid answer] Multiple people e.g. a team from OpenAI

No one, the tweet was a joke or intended to attract advertisers without referring to someone specific

https://x.com/dwarkesh_sp/status/1826340260735058400

This market is specifically on whom the above tweet is referring to, regardless of whether the interview occurs.

: Eliezer and I publicly stated some predictions about AI performance on the IMO by 2025.... My final prediction (after significantly revising my guesses after looking up IMO questions and medal thresholds) was:

Eliezer spent less time revising his prediction, but said (earlier in the discussion):

So I think we have Paul at <8%, Eliezer at >16% for AI made before the IMO is able to get a gold (under time controls 

 of grand challenge) in one of 2022-2025.

Resolves to YES if either Eliezer or Paul acknowledge that an AI has succeeded at this task.

https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-a-machine-learning-model-score-f0d93ee0119b

Update: As noted by Paul, the qualifying years for IMO completion are 2023, 2024, and 2025.

Update 2024-06-21: Description formatting

Update 2024-07-25: Changed title from "by 2025" to "by the end of 2025" for clarity

EG "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

 of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, & Arizona in the 2024 presidential election. It resolves 

Resolution will be based on the AP & Fox News decision desks. If they both declare a winner in these four states, this question will resolve 48 hours later if those calls have not been retracted.

 which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected, OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2, and 3. I 

wonder which company will be #1 at the end of 2024. 

Screenshot of the rankings table taken on the 13th of December: 

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.

In a recent Twitter exchange, the VC Keith Rabois called Nate Silver a "buffoon" and claimed that the "minimum" Trump win in FL is 8 points (and 10-14 is "more likely"). In reply, Nate challenged him to a $100,000 bet. 

This market resolves YES if Trump wins Florida by >8 points, and NO otherwise.

Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?

Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.

Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.

This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.

If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.

This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.

If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Pennsylvania, or NO otherwise.

Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.

If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.

In 2020, Donald Trump got 74,223,975 votes.

In 2024 will Donald Trump get 74,223,976 or more votes?

David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation and Research, 

Will Donald Trump declare that he has won the 2024 US presidential election before 8:00 AM Eastern Time (5 AM Pacific Time) on Wednesday November 6th, 2024?

To determine whether Donald Trump declared himself the winner of the 2024 US presidential election on election night, statements made by Donald Trump between 12:00 PM November 5th 2024 and 8:00 AM November 6th 2024 Eastern Time will be analyzed. If Donald Trump says during this time, through any medium including his official social media accounts, that he has won the 2024 US presidential election, then this question will resolve as YES. Otherwise, it will resolve as NO.

To qualify, a statement or declaration must explicitly and unambiguously state that Trump considers himself, or his campaign, the winner of the 2024 election, using clear language such as "Frankly, we did win this election" or similar. The statement must clearly refer to the past or present tense, and cannot use conditional phrasing, e.g., "I have won" or "I am the winner" rather than "I will win" or "If you count the legal votes, I easily win". The statement must directly pertain to the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election, rather than any other election.

🇺🇸 US Politics

🖥️ Technology

🏟️ Sports

This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election. 

Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press.

This market will settle as YES if there is one or more significant riots related to the US presidential election between October 28, 2024, and midnight Eastern Time on January 20, 2025.

To settle as YES, the following criteria must be met:

All criteria must be met by the same side. For example, if Harris supporters cause $500K in damages and Trump supporters cause another $500K in damages in different cities, this will not be sufficient to settle the market as YES. Edge cases with ambiguities under the resolution criteria will be settled in accordance with the spirit of the market.

From my Big Kink Survey. Most respondents skewed white, female, liberal, western, young - basically the type to take online surveys that tell you stuff about yourself. 

I haven't looked at the answer yet, so I don't know either, and will bet myself! What % of female respondents will report a bodycount of 10 or higher?

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