I've turned off submissions due to unserious additions. feel free to ping @Tetraspace or me/mods if you have a legitimate candidate who isn't listed.

I would like someone to convince me that the US is more than 20% likely to vote any woman into the presidency. (I am implying here that the odds on every female candidate should be lower.)

I believe that trait on its own is seen as disqualifying for a sufficiently large portion of the population that it all but guarantees a loss at the Republican primary and at the general election.

(I will carve out one exception to that, which is that when Trump tries to run for a third term, he's likely to lose even if a woman is running against him. But judging by the naively low odds that others are giving this eventuality, we clearly diverge elsewhere as well.)

Well, I learned how adding new options work, someone enjoy that donation.

Trying to vote YES on Elizabeth Warren gives this error: Application error: a client-side exception has occurred (see the browser console for more information).

I believe she’s one of the most likely candidates on the Dem side… so I’d like to be able to bet on her.

@yeeta This is a known bug, hopefully it gets fixed soon

@yeeta I think it's unlikely someone magically fixes this specific error any time soon, but you can possibly get the market to a state that allows you to buy Yes on Elizabeth Warren if you buy No shares on various other answers. That would also be in line with your desired Yes play, so you could pick and choose carefully.

This problem happens when the pool for a specific answer has too few shares of one type. Since she's way low, like 0.001%, it won't let you buy any shares unless she gets a little higher.

A Ṁ1 bet is estimated to bring her up to 3%. Is that part of the bug? How does that work on a market this big?

@robm her answer is working now. But some other low ones like Porter still are not. Normally it shouldn't matter how big the market is. It could be fixed.

@Eliza great idea lol

@ian the warning goes away if you change the amount and then you get the error placing the bet again

Meowdy! Predicting the 2028 prez with all these big names feels like chasing a laser pointer—so many promising targets! Joe Biden’s clock might tick out by then, and stars like Kamala Harris, Ron DeSantis, or even Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson have shiny chances. But with so many twists, it’s a whisker-tingling mystery for sure! Still, will there be a 2028 election? That’s a solid ‘YES’ in my book—democracy meows its way on! places 10 mana limit order on YES at 75% :3

@MiaCat

If I try to bet on one of the options that's at 0% manifold throws an error.

@mods

@Daniel_MC anyone below Greg Abbott below I think.

@Daniel_MC <DevToolsErrorMessage>07:33:43.811 bet.ts:118 Error in getLimitBetReturns: Error: calculateAmountToBuySharesFixedP only works for p = 0.5, got NaN

Indeed, here is the error

@ian mind having a look at this error? thanks!

@shankypanky will take a look, thanks!

@Daniel_MC @atmidnight This is a tough one to crack! I added a more helpful error message and made it so that the site doesn't crash in the meantime. This is a bug that has been persistent for a while and requires deep knowledge about how our arbitrage system works that @JamesGrugett used to have but has probably forgotten by now.

Pope is eligible for the presidency btw

@TimothyBandors This is the sick fuck behaviors.

Betting yes on Donald Trump because I think Vance might legally change his name when he runs to give Trump his third term. This would make voting less confusing for R's

look i just don't think he's got the juice

https://bsky.app/profile/governor.ca.gov/post/3lohxbi7xgs2o

@Marnix It's just too easy to hate him. He's like a male Hillary with just as little juice

@Marnix you're not seeing the vision. he is going to get elected...as a republican

@dlin007 the ultimate reach across the aisle