Resolves N/A if Labour does not win the next UK general election (scheduled for 2029). Resolves YES if, by the election after that, I still have to show ID to get full access to Discord and Twitter; NO otherwise. Age verification by showing my face or by KYC also counts as this.

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 46% chance (2 traders, as of Jul 31, 2025).

If Labour wins next election, I have to show ID for Discord & Twitter full access at time of the election after that?

Will I have to show my ID to get full access to Discord or Twitter at the time of the next UK election?

84% chance

If Cons win next election, I have to show ID for Discord & Twitter full access at time of the election after that?

50% chance

If Reform wins next election, I have to show ID for Discord & Twitter full access at time of the election after that?

50% chance

If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?

Will I be eligible to vote in the next Labour leadership election?

85% chance

Will Labour announce a leadership election before 1st June 2026?

25% chance

If this party wins in Gorton and Denton, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

If Labour loses over 1000 council seats in the 2026 local elections, will Starmer cease to be PM in 2026?

59% chance

If this person is elected Deputy Leader of Labour in 2025, will the PM after the next general election be Labour?

If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer leaves as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?

40% chance