The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years
The Labour Party will win the next UK election (2023/4) and then govern for more than 8 contiguous years
6
130Ṁ742031
36%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the Labour Party win the next UK general election?
40% chance
If this person is the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK election after 2024, will the PM be Labour?
Will Labour form a 2 term government?
40% chance
Will labour keep their majority for over ten years?
31% chance
How many seats will the UK Labour Party win at the next general election?
Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
75% chance
In the next UK General Election [Likely 2029] which parties will gain seats?
Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?
Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?
58% chance