Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
If Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, will he become Labour leader in the next leadership election?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ159
Dec 31
80%
chance
6

Market context
Elections
UK Politics
UK
Labour Party (UK)
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will Andy Burnham be an MP at the same time Keir Starmer is PM?
+34% 1d99% chance
If Andy Burnham contests a by-election before the next GE, who wins the seat?
Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?
+25% 1d64% chance
Will Andy 'Sad Eyes' Burnham complete his term as Mayor of Greater Manchester?
-23% 1d1% chance
Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?
If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?
-4% 1d11% chance
Who will be the leader of the Labour Party going into the next UK general election?
IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?
If Andy Burnham wins a by-election, will he become PM before the next GE?
-6% 1d83% chance
If Labour loses over 1000 council seats in the 2026 local elections, will Starmer cease to be PM in 2026?
+6% 1d88% chance