Resolves NA if Andy Burnham does not win a by-election before the next general election. Resolved YES if Andy Burnham wins a by-election before the next general election and becomes PM before the next general election. Resolves NO if Andy Burnham wins a by-election before the next general election and does not become PM before the next general election.

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 72% chance (2 traders, as of May 15, 2026).

If Andy Burnham wins a by-election, will he become PM before the next GE?

If Andy Burnham contests a by-election before the next GE, who wins the seat?

Will Andy Burnham lose a by-election in 2026?

-3% 1d37% chance

When will Andy Burnham become an MP by?

10/24/27

Will Andy Burnham be an MP at the same time Keir Starmer is PM?

+15% 1d60% chance

Will Andy Burnham be the Labour candidate for the Makerfield by-election?

+34% 1d94% chance

If Andy Burnham is the candidate for the Makerfield by-election, will he win?

-19% 1d56% chance

Will Andy Burnham be an MP by the next UK general election?

+9% 1d69% chance

Will Andy 'Sad Eyes' Burnham complete his term as Mayor of Greater Manchester?

-41% 1d36% chance

If Labour wins a majority government at the 2024 election, will Keir Starmer be prime minister on 1st January 2028?

-4% 1d12% chance

If Andy Burnham wins the Makerfield by-election, will he become Labour leader in the next leadership election?

50% chance