Resolves NA if Andy Burnham does not win a by-election before the next general election. Resolved YES if Andy Burnham wins a by-election before the next general election and becomes PM before the next general election. Resolves NO if Andy Burnham wins a by-election before the next general election and does not become PM before the next general election.

Almost certainly — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 99% chance (13 traders, as of Jul 9, 2026).

If Andy Burnham wins a by-election, will he become PM before the next GE?

Who will be Andy Burnham's Chancellor at the end of 2026?

If this person is the Labour candidate for the 2026 Mayor of Greater Manchester election, will they win?

Who will be Andy Burnham's foreign secretary if he becomes PM in 2026?

If Labour loses >1000 council seats & Starmer doesn't leave as PM in 2026, will PM after next election be Labour?

36% chance

Will Keir Starmer have a position in Andy Burnham's first cabinet?

5% chance

If Keir Starmer ceases to be Prime Minister in 2026, will Labour win the next UK general election?

+4% 1d33% chance

Will Andy Burnham be PM at the time the next UK general election is announced?

73% chance

Will Andy Burnham lead Labour to the next general election?

74% chance

IF Andy Burnham leads Labour into the next General Election, will Labour win?

Andy Burnham PM before 1 November 2026?

99% chance