How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?
5
Ṁ125Ṁ258Dec 30
3.66 labs
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
95%
Above 1
89%
Above 2
72%
Above 3
39%
Above 4
24%
Above 5
This will resolve at the number of models that are higher than Fable 5 on arena.ai agent arena when I check on December 31st or January 1st 2026.
If Fable 5 is no longer on the leaderboard at that date, this will resolve at the number of models that are higher than any model that was higher than Fable, as of the time Fable was removed
A similar market resolving today would resolve 2 (OpenAI via GPT-6 Astra, Anthropic via Fable 5.1).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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