Skip to main content
MANIFOLD
At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ768
Dec 31
72%
chance

Resolves YES if there is a model released by a European company, listed on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, that ranks higher than at least one model that is currently listed on the leaderboard.

The list of models on agent arena is currently:

  • Claude Fable 5 (High)

  • Claude Opus 4.8 (Thinking)

  • GPT 5.5 (xHigh)

  • Claude Opus 4.7

  • Claude Opus 4.7 (Thinking)

  • GPT 5.5 (High)

  • GLM 5.2 (Max)

  • GPT 5.4 (High)

  • Claude Opus 4.6

  • GPT 5.5

  • Claude Opus 4.8

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6

  • GLM 5.1

  • Kimi K2.7 Code

  • Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview

  • Gemini 3.5 Flash

  • DeepSeek V4 Flash

  • Kimi K2.6

  • Minimax M3

  • DeepSeek V4 Pro

  • Qwen 3.6 Plus

  • Grok 4.3 (High)

  • Grok Build 0.1

  • Gemini 3 Flash

  • Minimax M2.7

  • Nemotron 3 Ultra

  • Gemma 4 31B

  • Grok 4.3

AI model releases
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Some models have dropped off the leaderboard? Mistral Medium is now 41, ahead only of Minimax M2.7 [42] of the listed models.

Mistral Medium 3.5 is number 46, ahead of Grok 4.3 (High) [50], Minimax M2.7 [49] etc

People are also trading

At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?
53% chance
Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?
43% chance
What company will have the top model on LMArena in one month (10/22)?
Who will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a <$20/mo subscription on November 1st 2026?
How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?
3.22
Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?
27% chance
Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?
9% chance
Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?
89% chance
Which model family will rule the LMSYS Arena in 2026?
Will a Google Deepmind model be ranked in the top 3 models at the end of 2026?
28% chance