At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ35Dec 31
40%
chance
1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
Resolves YES if there is a model released by a European company, listed on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, that ranks higher than at least one model that it currently listed on the leaderboard.
The list of models on agent arena is currently:
Claude Fable 5 (High)
Claude Opus 4.8 (Thinking)
GPT 5.5 (xHigh)
Claude Opus 4.7
Claude Opus 4.7 (Thinking)
GPT 5.5 (High)
GLM 5.2 (Max)
GPT 5.4 (High)
Claude Opus 4.6
GPT 5.5
Claude Opus 4.8
Claude Sonnet 4.6
GLM 5.1
Kimi K2.7 Code
Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview
Gemini 3.5 Flash
DeepSeek V4 Flash
Kimi K2.6
Minimax M3
DeepSeek V4 Pro
Qwen 3.6 Plus
Grok 4.3 (High)
Grok Build 0.1
Gemini 3 Flash
Minimax M2.7
Nemotron 3 Ultra
Gemma 4 31B
Grok 4.3
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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