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MANIFOLD
At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ905
Dec 31
90%
chance

Resolves YES if there is a model released by a European company, listed on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent, that ranks higher than at least one model that is currently listed on the leaderboard.

The list of models on agent arena is currently:

  • Claude Fable 5 (High)

  • Claude Opus 4.8 (Thinking)

  • GPT 5.5 (xHigh)

  • Claude Opus 4.7

  • Claude Opus 4.7 (Thinking)

  • GPT 5.5 (High)

  • GLM 5.2 (Max)

  • GPT 5.4 (High)

  • Claude Opus 4.6

  • GPT 5.5

  • Claude Opus 4.8

  • Claude Sonnet 4.6

  • GLM 5.1

  • Kimi K2.7 Code

  • Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview

  • Gemini 3.5 Flash

  • DeepSeek V4 Flash

  • Kimi K2.6

  • Minimax M3

  • DeepSeek V4 Pro

  • Qwen 3.6 Plus

  • Grok 4.3 (High)

  • Grok Build 0.1

  • Gemini 3 Flash

  • Minimax M2.7

  • Nemotron 3 Ultra

  • Gemma 4 31B

  • Grok 4.3

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Some models have dropped off the leaderboard? Mistral Medium is now 41, ahead only of Minimax M2.7 [42] of the listed models.

Mistral Medium 3.5 is number 46, ahead of Grok 4.3 (High) [50], Minimax M2.7 [49] etc

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