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MANIFOLD
Who will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a ≤$20/mo subscription on December 1st 2027?
1
Ṁ150Ṁ1
2027
39%
OpenAI
39%
Anthropic
5%
Moonshot
8%
Google
5%
Meta
5%
Other

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October 2026 AI model releases
Who will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a <$20/mo subscription on November 1st 2026?
Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Agent leaderboard on November 2, 2026?
Which lab will have the #1 model on the arena.ai Text leaderboard on October 31, 2026?
Which company will have the #1 model on the Arena text leaderboard on Oct 31, 2026?
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4.11
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77% chance
OpenAI's latest flagship public model unavailable through a Cursor subscription on December 31, 2026?
82% chance
A new entrant (not in top 100) on arena.ai enters top 50 before EOY 2027?
63% chance
When will Anthropic or OpenAI offer a $1,000/month AI subscription?
9/17/28