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MANIFOLD
Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?
2
Ṁ100Ṁ30
Dec 31
47%
chance

Resolves YES if I see a European model (model by a company primarily headquartered / operating in Europe; Mistral counts, DeepMind doesn't) on arena.ai by the end of 2026 and it has a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview, sorted by net improvement.

Currently the best listed model is Mistral 3.5 Medium, with a net improvement of -10.12%, compared to Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview's net improvement of -5.60%.

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