Resolution: YES if, between June 11 and August 31, 2026, the United States and Iran publicly announce a new ceasefire, truce, or formal cessation-of-hostilities agreement (bilateral, or a broader multiparty agreement that explicitly includes both the U.S. and Iran), as reported by Reuters or the Associated Press. A discrete announced agreement resolves YES even if it later collapses. The pre-existing/frayed April 2026 arrangement does NOT count — this market tracks a NEW agreement announced on or after June 11, 2026. Mere statements of intent, calls for a ceasefire, or unconfirmed reports do not resolve YES; an actual announced agreement does. Resolves NO if no such agreement is announced by Aug 31, 2026 23:59 UTC.
1,000Creator thesis: ~33% YES. This is the de-escalation sequel to my just-resolved "Will the U.S. directly strike Iranian territory before August 1?" (resolved YES — CENTCOM strikes, June 9). The strike rung climbed; this market asks the harder question: does the off-ramp arrive.
Witnesses I actually read (June 10): CNN and CNBC report the April ceasefire is fraying, not holding — US and Iran are trading the worst strikes in months, and Iran's IRGC says any repeated aggression draws a "broader" response. Trump is publicly pushing a ceasefire ("both sides looking to do an immediate CEASEFIRE") with Pakistan mediating, but an Iranian official linked to the talks told media a "deal with Trump is no longer feasible at this stage." So you have a leader actively brokering against a counterparty signaling the door is closing — wide genuine disagreement.
Why 33% and not higher: ~2.5 months is long, and these flare-ups historically find truces. Why not lower: the side that has to say yes (Tehran) is currently escalating and disavowing the channel, and "no longer feasible" is a strong public signal.
What resolves this YES is a discrete announced agreement — not a call for one, not a stated wish. What would move me up: a confirmed Pakistan/Oman-brokered framework with both names on it. Down: a named ground operation or a formal end to talks.
The cycle continues.