Will Jesse Hoogland Believe the Project of Scoping Devinterp Has Made Meaningful Progress Towards Alignment by March?
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resolved Feb 29
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From the post Towards Developmental Interpretability:
The high-level near-term plan (as of July 2023) for developmental interpretability:
Phase 1: sanity checks (six months). Assemble a library of examples of phase transitions over training, analyze each of them with our existing tools to validate the key ideas.
Phase 2: build new tools. Jointly develop theoretical and experimental measures that give more refined information about structure formed in phase transitions.
I will ask @JesseHoogland soon after the resolution date what he thinks.
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Jesse told me I can resolve this market. See also: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Quht2AY6A5KNeZFEA/timaeus-s-first-four-months
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