@SirCryptomind This market resolved early and without evidence. Please reopen it. The super alignment team leader is confident the outcome is the different than the way @VictorLJZ resolved this market.

@VictorLJZ i Bad resolution. The 4 years isn't up and the team leader is confident that OpenAI will develop safe AGI.

Resolved to NO since the team has been disbanded.

Should be NA since that was external decision that may or may not be political.

If most of the team gets replaced with new members, and those members believe their goal has been achieved, but the original now gone members disagree, how does this resolve? It seems like it should resolve Yes.

Just for clarification, “their goal has been achieved“ means that “superalignment is achieved“ or “alignment is achieved“, correct?

Something along the lines of “we have been successful in our project because it has shown us that alignment is much harder than we previously believed, etc…“ would not count, right?

(There's always a way to spin something to sound successful if one gains valuable new information from it. So I'm just asking to be sure.)

I'll just say that if our only criteria for whether we have reached alignment is "the team believes they succeeded", we have absolutely no hope of actually reaching it.