Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024? | Manifold

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

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Eager to hear from Dan Hendrycks what he would be some of the criteria he is looking for that would cause this to resolve as Yes!

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I feel like he's the wrong person to ask. If he's publicly associated with it, it would be really awkward for him to say something bad about it.

https://manifold.markets/Alana/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-believe-xai?r=QWxhbmE

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

50% chance. Just like in the Dan Hendrycks market, it’d be great if Eliezer could provide/suggest some likely criteria for this!

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AI questions

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

AI Safety questions

(AI virus) When will an AI first replicate onto new hardware against user intent?

Will OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?

AI Alignment questions

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?

Related questions

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)

Will AutoGPT-style AI Agents mostly work before the end of 2024?

🐕 Will A.I. Get Significantly Better at Evaluating Scientific Claims by the end of 2024?

Will we solve AI alignment by 2026?

Will deceptive misalignment occur in any AI system before 2030?

In 2025, will I believe that aligning automated AI research AI should be the focus of the alignment community?

Will OpenAI announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment in 2024?

Will xAI overtake OpenAI as the leader in AI research by the end of 2024?

Conditional on their being no AI takeoff before 2030, will the majority of AI researchers believe that AI alignment is solved?

Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?