Who will achieve a majority at the 2024 Tasmanian state election?
9
Ṁ365Ṁ3.4kresolved Mar 23
100%68%
No party will achieve a majority
27%
Liberal Party of Australia (Tasmanian Division)
3%
Australian Labor Party (Tasmanian Branch)
1.2%
Jacqui Lambie Network
0.7%Other
An election will be held in Tasmania's House of Assembly on the 23rd of March, 2024. This election will be the first since 1998 to see the five electoral divisions each elect seven members instead of five. The major parties are Liberal and Labor, with the Greens regularly receiving a few seats.
To have a majority, a party must win eighteen of the thirty-five available seats.
Market will be resolved when it is clear that a party will or will not achieve a majority. (This could happen quickly or take several days. Postal votes can arrive at the Commission any time before 10am on the 2nd of April, after which the full distribution occurs.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ132 | |
| 2 | Ṁ127 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ30 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
Sort by:
People are also trading
Related questions
Which party will form Opposition following the 2026 South Australian state election?
Who will be the next Premier of Tasmania?
2026 Victorian state election – 2PP count winner
Who will win the 2028 Australian federal election?
Who will win a majority in Taiwan's parliament in the 2026 midterm elections?
The Premier of Victoria will be from which Part(ies) after the 2026 state election?
Which parties will exceed their 2023 party vote in the 2026 NZ Election?
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?
68% chance
Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats at the next general election for the House of Representatives?
67% chance
Will One Nation win more seats than the Liberals+Nationals+QLNP+CLP combined at the next Australian federal election?
25% chance