Will the party that wins the next Australian federal election have a majority in the Senate?
7
41
180
2025
28%
chance

Resolves YES if, after the next Australian federal election (likely in late 2025), the party or coalition that wins government, i.e. supplies the Prime Minister, also has an outright majority in the Senate.

For the purposes of this question, only formal coalitions that existed prior to the election, such as the Liberal–National Coalition, count. Minor parties and independents pledging confidence and supply to a larger party will not count as part of a coalition.

Because candidates may leave, be kicked out of, or join parties throughout the electoral process, for the purposes of this question, publicly-known party membership as of the time the Prime Minister is sworn in will be used to determine which party Senators or the Prime Minister belong to.

If Senate and House of Representatives elections are conducted on the same day, as is normal practice, then whether or not the winning party has a majority in the Senate will be determined based on the outcome of that Senate election, even if those Senators may not start their terms for some time after the election (as is also normal practice).

In the unlikely event of separate House of Representatives and Senate elections, the market will resolve based on the state of the Senate at the time the Prime Minister is sworn in.

This market will resolve when both a Prime Minister has been sworn in, and the AEC has announced the full Senate election results. This can take several weeks after the election due to the complexity of the Senate ballot.

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