Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if the United States and Venezuela engage in direct military combat involving armed forces of both nations. This includes:

• Armed conflict between U.S. and Venezuelan military units

• U.S. military strikes on Venezuelan territory with Venezuelan military response

• Naval or air combat between the two nations' forces

The market resolves NO if no such direct military engagement occurs. Continued economic sanctions, blockades, covert operations, or unilateral U.S. strikes without Venezuelan military retaliation do not constitute war.

Resolution will be determined by credible news sources documenting direct military engagement between the two nations' armed forces.

Background

Tensions between the United States and Venezuela have escalated sharply in late 2025 following a series of deadly U.S. maritime strikes and an expanded military presence in the Caribbean. The U.S. military carried out a series of lethal boat strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific, which U.S. officials said targeted vessels involved in drug trafficking, with many of these strikes carried out along the Venezuelan coast. President Trump declared on November 29, 2025, that the airspace above and around Venezuela should be considered closed. On December 16, Trump ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers entering or departing Venezuela.

By the end of August 2025, seven warships and a fast-attack nuclear submarine were stationed near Venezuela, the largest US military force in the region since the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. Venezuela has been conducting regular military drills over the past few weeks in preparation for any possible attack.