34% chance. U.S. government forces seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela on December 10. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/trump-administration-seizes-oil-tanker-off-venezuela-coast-us-officials-say-2025-12-10/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces seize another ship that is transporting, or is intended to transport, oil to or from Venezuela by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Seizes refers to U.S. forces taking custody of or asserting operational control of the vessel, including boarding and taking control of the vessel, detaining the vessel indefinitely, or forcefully rerouting the vessel to a U.S.-controlled port. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Any number of these conflicts might resolve Yes this year, once they enter the Wars or Major Wars category on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts I will be fairly liberal with what counts as a conflict. So if the U.S. and Israel declare war on Iran and start accruing losses in one Wikipedia entry, both of those pairings could resolve Yes together. Multiple belligerents fighting as part of a broader conflict with a different Wiki heading still count as long as their (para)militaries are actually fighting each other. So, the Arab-Israeli conflict in 2024 did count for Israel/Lebanon but did not count for Israel/Iran. "Anyone" conflicts can resolve to any conflict involving the listed country. At the end of the year, all unresolved conflicts will resolve No. A conflict will only resolve N/A if the definition of the countries involved becomes broadly disputed in a high traffic trading event with no reasonable solution after asking mods. One guy misreading the wikipedia rules won't result in an N/A, but 12 people arguing about a 5-way civil war with publicly denied international intervention might. If a wiki entry is added to the Wars or major Wars category merely because of a retroactive addendum to its 2024 numbers, that will not be sufficient to resolve it Yes for 2025. Coterminous states such as Rojava count for their synonyms (in this case, Kurdistan). Update 2025-02-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Kurdish-related conflicts: The market will use the bundled Kurdish Separatist Insurgencies Wikipedia article as the basis for resolution on Kurdistan / Anyone. In particular, conflicts such as those involving Kurds in the Syrian Civil War will not count unless they show sufficient deadly involvement in the last 13 months, similar to how the Arab-Israeli Conflict entry is treated. These conditions apply both for this year and last year, though they could change if the situation escalates. Update 2025-02-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Nigeria / Cameroon conflict: A resolution of Yes will be given if Wikipedia continues to list both countries as belligerents. The conflict must be in active fighting at the time of evaluation. Update 2025-06-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In a comment referencing the resolution of an older market, the creator provided their reasoning for resolving an Israel/Iran conflict as Yes. This indicates a similar standard may be applied to this market. Key factors included: The conflict becoming a "hot war" with strikes that are "much more deadly and sustained" than previous exchanges. Iran being "actively joined, unambiguously and directly (not just through proxies)". This judgment was supported by major media headlines. Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Balochistan (and similar non-internationally recognized entities): The conflict can resolve Yes if Balochistan is listed as a belligerent in Wikipedia's format in the relevant conflict entry. International recognition as a country is not required. Update 2025-11-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Balochistan (and similar non-internationally recognized entities): The conflict can resolve Yes if it reaches 1000 deaths and becomes classified as a minor war on Wikipedia's List of Ongoing Armed Conflicts, provided Balochistan is listed as a belligerent in the conflict entry. Update 2025-11-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Balochistan (and similar conflicts): The market will resolve Yes if the Wikipedia entry shows updated death counts that reach the threshold for classification as a war/minor war by end of year, provided the entry includes Balochistan as a belligerent and meets Wikipedia's standards for the Wars or Minor Wars category. Update 2025-12-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that no changes will be made to the existing resolution criteria for this market, despite any concerns raised about their application. All previously issued clarifications (including those regarding Balochistan) remain in effect. Update 2025-12-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For Balochistan (and similar sub-belligerent conflicts): The market can resolve Yes if there is ongoing direct conflict with the sub-belligerent entity (such as regular separatist bombings, hijackings, etc. in the region), following the same approach used for the Israel/Lebanon resolution. The requirement is that there must be some ongoing direct conflict activity, not necessarily full classification as a "minor war" on Wikipedia. Update 2025-12-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): All unresolved conflicts will resolve No immediately on January 1st, 2026 (when the market closes). There will be no waiting period for additional information or data to come in after the close date.