Background

The 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, ratified in 1951, limits presidents to two terms in office. This amendment was passed following Franklin D. Roosevelt's unprecedented four terms as president. Donald Trump served as the 45th President of the United States from 2017 to 2021, and is currently running for a second term in the 2024 election.

While recent polling shows that more than half of Americans believe Trump will attempt to serve a third term despite constitutional prohibitions, there is no specific polling data in recent sources that directly measures what percentage of Republicans would support a third Trump term. Trump maintains extremely high approval ratings among Republicans (93% in recent Gallup polling), but this does not necessarily translate to support for a third term.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve to YES if a credible poll is published showing that more than 50% of Republican respondents indicate they would support or be "okay with" Donald Trump serving a third term as President of the United States.

The poll must:

• Be conducted by a recognized polling organization

• Have a clear methodology

• Include a sample size of at least 500 Republican voters or Republican-leaning independents

• Be published by a mainstream news organization or the polling firm itself

• Specifically ask about support for a third Trump term (not just general approval)

The market will resolve to NO if:

• No such poll is published

• Polls consistently show less than 50% of Republicans support a third Trump term

• The deadline passes without conclusive evidence

Considerations

Constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority in both houses of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of state legislatures. Even with significant Republican support, the practical and legal barriers to enabling a third presidential term are substantial.