Condition: Republicans win a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives in the November 3, 2026 elections (at least 218 seats won by Republican Party candidates, counting delegations as certified; independents count for neither party). If Democrats or no party win a majority, this market resolves N/A.

Resolves YES if VoteHub's polling average of Donald Trump's job approval is 40.0% or higher for January 1, 2028 (the value VoteHub shows for that date). If VoteHub's average is unavailable, uses the RealClearPolling average instead. Resolves NO otherwise, and N/A if Trump is not President on that date.

This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if Democrats win the House. Comparing the two shows what the market thinks control of the House changes.

Starting probability is a seed, not a forecast: anchored on public prediction-market prices where a related market exists, otherwise a prior.