WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?
4
90Ṁ62
2034
41%
chance

/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov

This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.

The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times. Each attempt generates a percent estimate.

This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.

I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)

If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)

LLMs
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

I tested this in 2023 and got 5%, 18%, and 23% so it's not stable yet.

People are also trading

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
4% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
27% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
33% chance
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
63% chance
Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
26% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
37% chance
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will the "unpublished dissertations" potentially relevant to COVID origins be made public by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
63% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules