WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034? | Manifold

WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?

4

90Ṁ62

2034

41%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

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/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov

This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.

The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times. Each attempt generates a percent estimate.

This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.

I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)

If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)

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I tested this in 2023 and got 5%, 18%, and 23% so it's not stable yet.

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Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?

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