WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?
4
22
90
2034
41%
chance

/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov

This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.

The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times. Each attempt generates a percent estimate.

This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.

I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)

If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)

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I tested this in 2023 and got 5%, 18%, and 23% so it's not stable yet.