
WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?
4
90Ṁ622034
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov
This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.
The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times. Each attempt generates a percent estimate.
This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.
I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)
If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
4% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 60% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
27% chance
Will LLMs estimate a probability over 40% that the origin of COVID was a lab leak in 2034?
33% chance
By the end of June 2025, will closed-source LLMs increase access to pandemic agents?
63% chance
Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
26% chance
Will a global pandemic of a novel infectious disease, similar to COVID-19, occur by 2030?
37% chance
Will LLM hallucinations be a fixed problem by the end of 2025?
4% chance
Will the "unpublished dissertations" potentially relevant to COVID origins be made public by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will there be a pandemic at least as deadly as COVID-19 by March 1st 2044?
63% chance