WIll answers from top LLMs about COVID origins be stable in 2034?
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4
Ṁ622034
41%
chance
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/StrayClimb/will-llms-estimate-a-probability-ov
This market is about the stability of answers generated by the related market above.
The above question proposes asking a top LLM the same question five times. Each attempt generates a percent estimate.
This market is about whether the results of those five attempts will be within ten percent of each other.
I e if the five attempts are: 5,5,5,5,15 this resolves true. (Within a band 10% wide)
If they are 5,15,15,16,15 this resolves false (the band is 11% wide or higher)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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