Which of these potentially world-changing discoveries will happen first?
57
2.6k
2030
19%
AGI
8%
Fusion energy
2%
Room-temperature ambient-pressure superconductor
5%
Cure for cancer
15%
High-fidelity brain-computer interface
0.2%
FTL travel
12%
Extraterrestrial life
0.6%
Universal virus vaccine
0.6%
Full-brain emulation
1.5%
Nanotechnology
37%
Good vegan cheese

Resolves to my judgement. Happy April Fool's but this is a very serious market. Nothing melts like real cheese melts.

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Good vegan cheese
bought Ṁ10 Good vegan cheese YES

Betting yes on this out of hopium

AGI
bought Ṁ20 AGI NO

I know that having this in my portfolio is a losing endeavor given Manifold's obsession with it. But lol, this is not in any sense the most likely.

Nanotechnology

@GazDownright You realize you're betting against good vegan cheese right?!

@DavidFWatson There's nothing like real cheese. I trust @NcyRocks' tastebuds 👊

opened a Ṁ40 Cure for cancer YES at 15% order

Have you considered how much bad vegan cheese you might have to eat for this market?

Cure for cancer

a cure for any one type of cancer counts?

High-fidelity brain-computer interface

Sorry to be a pain, but... how high a fidelity? We already have brain-computer interfaces that are used to control robotic arms, I believe there are even ones used to give blind people sight.

@DavidFWatson Normalize asking for further specification. No pain, no gain.

@NcyRocks any update?

Fusion energy
bought Ṁ10 Fusion energy YES

Can you be more specific on this? Strictly speaking there exist operational fusion reactors. There have even been net-positive fusion reactors (for very short periods though). What's the precise requirement?

@DavidFWatson also nuclear weapons and the sun use fusion energy