When will Manifold pivot from the Pivot?
22
1kṀ2979
resolved Oct 23
Resolved
NO
By EOM June 2024
Resolved
NO
By EOM Sept 2024
Resolved
YES
By EOY 2024
Resolved
YES
By EOY 2025

Has to be a major shift in paradigm, but not necessarily a complete abandonment of the idea. As it might be fairly subjective, I won't bet.

Some directionality indicators that, individually, could cause me to resolve YES:

  • Running off in an entirely different direction with the platform

  • Abandoning real money rewards or sweepstakes model

  • Reversing the 10x devaluation

  • Completely reversing at least 4 of the following intended changes:

    • trader fees

    • removing loans

    • removing house subsidies

    • removing unique trader bonuses

    • removing bounties

    • removing N/As

    • forced verification

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