Will Manifold enact any of the ideas from "The Bazaar of Knowledge" concept for what the pivot could be, by end 2024?
13
100Ṁ200
Jan 1
16%
chance

The Bazaar of Knowledge (thread on discord)

Some of the more major ideas presented in the brief:

  • "Sand" (aka Mana) isn't devalued as part of a pivot

  • "Pearls" (i.e. Spice) is a versatile, user-purchased resource for USD interactions (and can't be acquired directly from the house with Sand)

  • Sand and Pearls can be listed for trade at a user-backed exchange

  • An expansive suite of economy-adaptive Sand sinks are established, while retaining faucets, such as

    • winnings rake

    • liquidity recapture

    • stagnancy tax

    • exchange fees

    • and more

  • Shared trader bonuses are spread between subsidizers

  • Pearls can enhance markets for both traders and subsidizers by increasing trader bonuses and being prizes for traders

  • More leaderboards are added that unlock new cosmetics for users to get

  • Loan options are expanded with varied price points

  • User-to-user loans are managed from a central lending house

Plus some minor changes:

  • "Honor" (a form of Experience Points) is used for "Number go up!!" and some cosmetics

  • There's a fairly significant rebalance to leagues

  • The daily quests experience is expanded

  • Boosts are reworked to focus on timed acquisition of successful trades

The goal of this question is to measure how entrenched Manifold is in their vision of what the Pivot looks like.

So, if Manifold shifts away from the current plans for the Pivot to adopt a set of changes that closely resemble any of the bigger ideas or The Bazaar is clearly cited as inspiration, this will resolve YES. If Manifold does their pivot as planned, then comes back and uses The Bazaar as a basis to re-pivot by the close date, this also resolves YES. If the changes they make are minor or only fuzzily appear to be related to The Bazaar, it will probably still resolve NO. In all other cases, NO after close.

As this could involve some sort of subjective determination, I won't bet.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
8mo

Speaking of pivots, did anyone figure out anything about "twomba" is yet? If "flumba" was the code name for the "sweepstakes pivot", what in the world is "twomba"? They seem to be using this code name regularly in Standup for a while yet no one has been grilling them on it.

/market will Twomba be related to Manicode?

8mo

no idea. flumba part TWOmba?

8mo

Yeah, that was about as far as I got.

8mo

@Stralor

Here is the Twomba Possibility Matrix, as developed by @Ziddletwix:

  • 3rd currency

  • full frontend rewrite

  • full backend/trading engine rewrite

  • tacking an accounting system onto the current site

Maybe there is enough speculation to develop it into a market.

8mo

🤔 maybe! not sure quite yet where to go with that

reposted 8mo

There's no indication from the team that they're interested at all in this design. I haven't heard any word that they're even considering pieces of it for the long-term roadmap

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules