I am going to close trading on this market (temporarily?) while we have a moderation discussion about how to handle it. Conflux below suggested a consensus of moderators and the guidelines indicate that is how to proceed on an abandoned creator market with subjective resolution.

@Eliza I initiated a moderator discussion. Pat Scott ended up showing up to the discussion and indicated:

EOY 2025 - Resolves Yes
EOY 2024 - Resolves Yes
EOM Sept 2024 - Resolves No

Just for good measure, we also had 3 moderators agree to follow Pat's resolution plan. @Conflux @EvanDaniel

I know @Stralor is off the site, so a mod may need to step in, but currently:

Reversing the 10x devaluation

This has already happened, so by itself that would likely be enough.

Completely reversing at least 4 of the following intended changes:

• trader fees

• removing loans

• removing unique trader bonuses

• removing bounties

• removing N/As

So trader fees, unique trader bonuses, & bounties have been unequivocally reversed. Arguably, "removing N/As" has been reverted too, because post-pivot the guidance was "questions can no longer N/A" and now it is perfectly fine to write N/A questions (but that's not clear cut because they haven't actually let creators do N/A themselves without mods anymore). Loans will be likely back after the election, but obviously that doesn't count yet.

IMO Manifold pivoted away from the pivot when it changed from prize points -> sweepstakes, which was still "real money" but an entirely different model (that looks nothing like what was announced during the pivot, and even has many of the features people requested at the time). But I sold my September stake because it wasn't resolved YES when @Stralor was on the site. IMO it pretty clearly resolves YES now—mana devaluation reversed, plus at a minimum 3 of the changes reversed (and I'd argue N/As as well), but maybe more arguable.

@mods ok Pat is off the site, and I think based on the description, this can safely resolve.

Completely reversing at least 4 of the following intended changes:

• trader fees

• removing loans

• removing house subsidies

• removing unique trader bonuses

• removing bounties

• removing N/As

• forced verification

Trader fees, removing unique trader bonuses, removing bounties, and removing N/As have all been reversed. The rest of the criteria are necessarily subjective, but the description included an objective bar for resolution and we've passed that bar. (we'll go comfortably passed it when loans return, 10x devaluation has been reversed, etc, but this is the simplest proof).

i.e. I think it should be september NO other months YES

@Ziddletwix

(as a non-mod I can N/A again as of just now ,for reference, as mods can't easily verify that)

@Ziddletwix Hmm, I'm not convinced the market should resolve immediately, based on Pat's comments below ("subjectively, this doesn't feel like an abandonment of the Pivot, it just feels like a doubling down"). I do agree that the criteria have been met though, so that's an argument for YES, but this is ultimately a subjective market. At least, I'd want input from Pat, or perhaps a consensus of more mods.

To be clear his full comment also says (after the "doesn't feel like an abandonment" part):

they've indicated they might reverse a few of the other listed decisions, so this market is rightfully trending YES imo

so even in that comment, he cited reversing more of these decisions as "rightfully trending YES". now, more of those decisions have since been reversed, as he expected.

ofc fine to also msg pat to ask! or other mods

@Ziddletwix ah, that's a good point. I'll still defer to the next mod

This seems like a YES to me when they made the sweeps changes

The point of "the pivot" was to shift to real money bets. Sweepstakes is doubling down on the premise, not "a major shift in paradigm" or "Running off in an entirely different direction". I would strongly disagree that it should resolve, it's mostly tweaks to the system to make it compliant with US regulations.

@Stralor obviously a subjective market, but IMO this announcement would count as YES for these:

Has to be a major shift in paradigm, but not necessarily a complete abandonment of the idea. As it might be fairly subjective, I won't bet.

this is certainly a major shift in paradigm. the original system announced, where mana bets resolve into prize points that can be withdrawn, is gone. now the systems are entirely separate. so it's likely that they'll reverse at least 4 of the intended changes below, but really the fundamental change from mana + PP connected system to mana & sweeps totally unconnected seems like a major paradigm shift (even if it's not completely abandoning the idea of real money payouts)

@Ziddletwix yeah I think this hits another point: mana deval was reversed-ish, since mana now costs 10x more, but also is worth ♾️ less. subjectively, this doesn't feel like an abandonment of the Pivot, it just feels like a doubling down.

but I hear your arguments and will chew on them. I'm not ready to resolve immediately, but they've indicated they might reverse a few of the other listed decisions, so this market is rightfully trending YES imo

What is forced verification? What if it's only for sweepstakes prizes

@nikki if it's opt in ("wanna do the sweeps? fill in this info") that's a change from the original plan. we talked about this below 😄

oops, I bet. (I've immediately sold, sorry y'all)

just jumping in here to remind you all that reverting a commit because it isn't ready yet isn't a reversal of plans or policy, per the spirit of pivoting from the pivot, and won't resolve this YES

This made me think of what individual changes are most likely to be reversed. I feel like the most likely reversal is the removal of N/A resolutions, simply because they're often extremely necessary and I don't really see how they could possibly cause more problems than we'll have without them. Least likely is the tenfold devaluation because I don't really see how that could be reversed.

talking about exactly this with @Tumbles in the DMs a few minutes ago - can't imagine a world without the ability to NA

@PlasmaBallin did you see my theoretical way of handling the pivot that didn't need devaluation? it's linked in this market:

@Stralor I think that even if they pivot to something more like the bazaar after mana is already devalued, they won't increase mana's value back to what it was originally. And it doesn't seem like they've changed the initial plan for the pivot to be more like the bazaar, so it looks like it will get devalued no matter what.

@PlasmaBallin you're probably right! I'm hoping to steer them off that course

forced verification was removed

@nikki ah I wasn't sure if it was only partially implemented so far or abandoned. it's a start!

@nikki it's conditional now, right? post-pivot you'll need to verify if you want real cash prizes? or did they change their approach on that? (I didn't follow that conversation all the way through)