When will Manifold pivot from the Pivot?
Basic
18
1.3k
2026
1%
By EOM June 2024
22%
By EOM Sept 2024
53%
By EOY 2024
74%
By EOY 2025

Has to be a major shift in paradigm, but not necessarily a complete abandonment of the idea. As it might be fairly subjective, I won't bet.

Some directionality indicators that, individually, could cause me to resolve YES:

  • Running off in an entirely different direction with the platform

  • Abandoning real money rewards or sweepstakes model

  • Reversing the 10x devaluation

  • Completely reversing at least 4 of the following intended changes:

    • trader fees

    • removing loans

    • removing house subsidies

    • removing unique trader bonuses

    • removing bounties

    • removing N/As

    • forced verification

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sold Ṁ49 By EOM June 2024 NO

oops, I bet. (I've immediately sold, sorry y'all)

just jumping in here to remind you all that reverting a commit because it isn't ready yet isn't a reversal of plans or policy, per the spirit of pivoting from the pivot, and won't resolve this YES

This made me think of what individual changes are most likely to be reversed. I feel like the most likely reversal is the removal of N/A resolutions, simply because they're often extremely necessary and I don't really see how they could possibly cause more problems than we'll have without them. Least likely is the tenfold devaluation because I don't really see how that could be reversed.

talking about exactly this with @Tumbles in the DMs a few minutes ago - can't imagine a world without the ability to NA

@PlasmaBallin did you see my theoretical way of handling the pivot that didn't need devaluation? it's linked in this market:

@Stralor I think that even if they pivot to something more like the bazaar after mana is already devalued, they won't increase mana's value back to what it was originally. And it doesn't seem like they've changed the initial plan for the pivot to be more like the bazaar, so it looks like it will get devalued no matter what.

@PlasmaBallin you're probably right! I'm hoping to steer them off that course

forced verification was removed

@nikki ah I wasn't sure if it was only partially implemented so far or abandoned. it's a start!

@nikki it's conditional now, right? post-pivot you'll need to verify if you want real cash prizes? or did they change their approach on that? (I didn't follow that conversation all the way through)