In 2025, iff Half-Life 3 announced then US-Venezuela Conflict? (Resolves XNOR)
6
100Ṁ557Dec 31
59%
chance
5
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Trader beware! This is one of my formerly infamous "inverting resolutions" markets. We're trying to measure the counterfactual without relying on a high chance of N/A. Are these two events at all vaguely correlated?
Resolution:
If both are true: YES
If one is true, one is false: NO
If both are false: YES
I will resolve according to the decisions made in these markets:
/Bandors/halflife-3-confirmed-by-eoy
/AlexanderTheGreater/military-conflict-between-the-us-an
If one of those N/As, I'll try to find a near-equivalent to replace it.
If you want to read more about how to read and bet effectively on a market like this and an analysis of the math behind it, check out my old /Stralor/inversion-resolutions-what-would-be
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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