This market resolves YES if Valve themselves confirm half life 3 is in development before January 1st 2026.
Update 2025-11-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if Valve announces a game called "Half-Life" (even without a number like "3") that is widely regarded as a sequel to the events after Half-Life 2. The creator will use their judgment to determine if this criterion is met.
Update 2025-11-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A prequel or side story will not qualify for YES resolution. The game must be a meaningful continuation of the events following Half-Life 2 (not just a brief story segment like the ending of Half-Life: Alyx).
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| # | Name | Total profit |
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If you'd like to keep gambl-err, betting, my market on HL3 by EOY 2030 is at 83% https://manifold.markets/Shelvacu/will-halflife-3-be-released-by-end
@TheOtherKC The funniest would definitely be if it was so close that everyone started arguing about timezones
@Robincvgr im so sorry you had to learn the pain we've all suffered for your entire lifespan this way, but at least it was only fake money
@Marnix remember, once you're pretty sure you predicted correctly, that means everyone else was idiots the whole time
iT WILL HAPPEN. iT'S HAPPENING. iT'S GOING TO HAPPEN BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025 AND HERE'S WHY YOU'RE ALL WRONG FOR DOUBTING.
tHE EVIDENCE
tYLER McVICKER has been datamining HLX code ALL YEAR. nEW enemy AI patterns. vOXEL destruction engines. pLAYABLE END-TO-END builds. hE SAID IT'S REAL. hE SAID IT EXISTS.
gABE FOLLOWER posted INTERNAL PLAYTESTING SCHEDULES for "HLX_FINAL" in NOVEMBER. tHAT MEANS THEY WERE TESTING IT. yOU DON'T TEST SOMETHING THAT ISN'T REAL.
aNd THEN - tHE BIG ONE - miCHAEL SHAPIRO (G-MAN HIMSELF) tweets on December 31st 2024 with #VALVE #HALFLIFE #GMAN #2025. hE SAID "may the next quarter century deliver as many UNEXPECTED SURPRISES" and posted his ARG song "Best Long Dog" that's EXACTLY 197 SECONDS LONG (the only stable isotope of GOLD with no half-life). hE PUT #2025 IN THE HASHTAGS. #2025. tHAT'S A PROMISE.
"bUT THE GAME AWARDS—"
oH YOU MEAN THE OBVIOUS MISDIRECT??? You can sticK TGA UP MY ASS! vALVE has NEVER announced at The Game Awards. tHEY'RE TOO COOL FOR THAT. tHEY dropped HALF-LIFE ALYX on a RANDOM MONDAY.
yOU REALLY THINK that Mega Man trailer was a COINCIDENCE? gEOFF said "a BELOVED FRANCHISE is RETURNING" and the screen had ORANGE BACKLIGHTING before the reveal. oRANGE. hALF-LIFE'S COLOR. tHEN it turned out to be Mega Man. tHAT WAS INTENTIONAL PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE. tHEY'RE TESTING OUR FAITH. tHEY'RE SEPARATING THE BELIEVERS FROM THE WEAK.
aNd THEN someone named ELLIE FREEMAN accepted the Game Changer award on stage. fREEMAN. gORDON FREEMAN. tHAT'S NOT A COINCIDENCE EITHER.
aNd Miss Piggy SINGING? gEOFF said "And now I'd like to welcome back an ICON. A LEGEND who pushes entertainment forward with each of their NEW PROJECTS. Someone I consider a DEAR FRIEND and a friend of the show." dEAR. fRIEND. gEOFF IS FRIENDS WITH GABE NEWELL. eVERYONE knows this. "New projects"??? "Icon"??? tHAT'S GABE LANGUAGE. aNd then it's MISS PIGGY. tHAT'S PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE. cLASSIC Valve PSYOPS. tHEY WANTED us to feel disappointed SO THAT when they drop it on December 28th at 3PM on a RANDOM THURSDAY we'll be EVEN MORE SURPRISED.
wE HAVE 14 DAYS LEFT
fOURTEEN. dAYS.
sHAPIRO said 2025. nOT "maybe 2025." nOT "hopefully 2025." hE PUT IT IN THE HASHTAG. tHAT'S A BLOOD OATH.
vALVE is WAITING for everyone to give up. tHEY want the hype to die down. aNd THEN boom. "Half-Life 3 available NOW." tHAT'S THE VALVE WAY.
tHE HL2 20th anniversary documentary showed EPISODE 3 FOOTAGE with the ice gun and blob enemies. tHEY SHOWED US WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN. wHY dredge up the past unless they're FINALLY ready to give us the FUTURE?
eVERY SINGLE LEAK has been CONSISTENT. tHE code is TOO POLISHED to be fake. tHE playtesting is TOO REAL. tHE Shapiro ARG is TOO ELABORATE for just a folk album promotion.
iT'S HAPPENING
i'M F5-ing the Steam homepage. i'M monitoring every Valve employee's Twitter. i'VE set up ALERTS for any website that mentions "lambda" OR "crowbar" OR "resonance cascade."
pEOPLE are calling me CRAZY but you KNOW who else people called CRAZY? nOAH when he built the ark. aNd WHO WAS LAUGHING WHEN THE FLOOD CAME? nOAH.
tHIS IS MY ARK. hALF-LIFE 3 IS THE FLOOD. aNd IT'S COMING BEFORE DECEMBER 31ST 2025.
tHEY CAN'T BREAK ME. i WILL NOT FALTER. mY FAITH IS UNSHAKEABLE.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
RAISE and shine!
Gallum galla gilla ma.
