Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS telescope in Chile. The asteroid is estimated to be between 40-90 meters in diameter. Current calculations indicate a potential impact date of December 22, 2032, with odds ranging from 1 in 77 to 1 in 83. The potential impact corridor spans South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.

Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts Earth's surface or atmosphere on or around December 22, 2032. The market will resolve NO if:

• The asteroid passes by Earth without impact

• The asteroid is destroyed or deflected prior to impact

Considerations

• Asteroid trajectories are regularly updated as new observations become available. The current probability estimates may change significantly as more data is collected

• NASA and other space agencies continue to monitor this object and may attempt deflection missions if deemed necessary