Nate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions

Question

Based on Nate Silver's article (although I think he skipped #86):

https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second

All predictions without and end date will be assumed to be on the last day of Trump's term, 1/20/2029.

I will take a snapshot of the percentages on 2/9/2025 (to hopefully get enough volume) to track for this market:

(https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true)
Also See:

@/StopPunting/which-trump-2028-term-prediction-ca

@/StopPunting/which-trump-term-prediction-categor

Update 2025-02-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:

Approval Rating Date: The approval rating will be taken on the day of the 2026 midterms, not at any earlier point if the threshold is reached beforehand.

Update 2025-03-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing Clarification:

The status of each cabinet position (confirmation/occupation) is determined strictly on the day of the 2026 midterms.

A candidate is considered to have kept their post if they are still confirmed or occupying the position on that date.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%), followed by [Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%) and [Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%) are most likely. See the market for live updates (194 traders, as of Nov 8, 2026).