Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?
Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?
2
1kṀ452030
15%
Baseline Politics (0 of 8 Resolved)
9%
Trump and 2028 (0 of 16 Resolved)
15%
Electorate Demographics (0 of 8 Resolved)
9%
Silicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved)
9%
Economy (0 of 17 Resolved)
9%
Foreign Policy (0 of 11 Resolved)
9%
Constitutionality (1 of 10 Resolved, Nate +0.28 (Worse) Manifold Brier)
9%
Immigration (0 of 5 Resolved)
9%
Culture Wars (0 of 15 Resolved)
9%
Media (0 of 8 Resolved)
Originally from this Article:
https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
Overall Competition:
That question (and this question) uses the time locked percentages from Manifold which was two weeks after Nates' article was published (and is why some questions are excluded).
Spreadsheet Used For Tracking
Live Manifold Tracking Market of Individual Questions:
Inverse Market for Manifold most Overperforming Nate:
Notes:
Excluded "Trump Cabinet" category because it only had 4 predictions and 2 were N/A'd due to the time difference
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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