Manifold Scouts: NFL Quarterback Peak Success
11
2.6kṀ1387
2100
85%
Joe Burrow
80%
Brock Purdy
80%
Jared Goff
80%
Jimmy Garoppolo
73%
Lamar Jackson
72%
Josh Allen
70%
Jayden Daniels
63%
Jordan Love
55%
C.J. Stroud
55%
Sam Darnold
55%
Bo Nix
55%
Drake Maye
55%
Caleb Williams
50%
Justin Herbert
45%
Dak Prescott
45%
Bryce Young
45%
Jaxson Dart
41%
Cam Ward
41%
Michael Penix Jr.
41%
Kirk Cousins

Resolves based on the peak season result for an NFL quarterback during their career. A players resolves either when they retire or win the super bowl. Resolution occurs as follows based on the team's peak performance:

  • 100% - Starts and Wins Super Bowl

  • 80% - Starts Super Bowl

  • 60% - Starts Conference Championship

  • 40% - Starts Divisional Round

  • 20% - Starts Wildcard Round

  • 0% - Never Make Playoffs

Each player in question must start the game to qualify (take the first offensive snap).

Tenure as of creation is taken into account (i.e. Joe Burrow will resolve at at least 80%, Josh Allen will resolve at at least 60%, Mason Rudolph will resolve at least 20% as of the end of the 2024/25 season).


Returning from retirement can count as it's own tenure, but won't change any past results.

If the NFL folds (or inherently changes in an extreme way where all the coaches are removed/change at the same time), then all quarterbacks will resolve at their previous peak.

This questions is everlasting, I will add new quarterbacks each draft cycle.

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