Based on common stats like
EPA, QBR, Yards, TDs, wins, AV, salary, MVP votes, media consensus
For reference
2025: Cam Ward vs Jaxson Dart - too early to say, Jaxson Dart seems like a 90% favorite after year 1, Cam Ward still has time on his rookie contract to prove otherwise, Tyler Shough seems to be better, but still too early and he’s older, Milroe is yet to start so Ward is ahead by default, he’s roughly on par with Gabriel / Sanders though he’s probably ahead
2024:
After rookie year, Jayden was clearly ahead but after an injury riddled year 2 and improvement it’s technically a 4 way race that we’ll need to see Year 3 and 4 to make a determination, I would lean towards
Jayden
Drake
based on the games played as well as their best season whereas Caleb and Bo aren’t top 10 QBs the way Jayden and Drake were top 5 in year 1 and 2 respectively
2023:
Pretty safe to say CJ > Bryce (I’d say like 95/5), but we can wait for year 4 for full confirmation given Strouds possible regression and Bryce’s possible ascension at the end of the 2025 season and in the playoffs
For Richardson / Levis / O’Connell assuming they’re not starters will judge based on trade value / next contract or dive deeper into stats if ambiguous
2022:
Purdy is first but Pickett vs Ridder vs Howell requires further analysis, Willis despite getting a large starting caliber contract was traded for just a 7th by the Titans so isn’t in contention for 2nd
2021:
Trevor
Justin
Mac
Davis
Zach
Trey
based on the AV stat
2020:
Is interesting since they all got 50M+
and it seems consensus is
Burrow
Herbert
Hurts
though Love is arguably higher now, he would face some penalty for being on the bench for so long. Tua was looking good through 4 years but got benched and cut now
I need to look into this further but essentially the factors in play are
trade value
impact to team (including playoffs)
market value
2019 is straightforward
Kyler
Jones
even though Jones has reached Kyler’s level now indexing more on first 4 years favors Kyler
2018
Josh and Lamar are close might have to end up resolving 50/50 in these cases
Baker
Darnold
2017
Mahomes
Deshaun
Trubisky
1,000