Resolution criteria

The market resolves based on the Associated Press NFL MVP award, voted on by a panel of 50 sportswriters at the end of the regular season. The first QB from the 2024 draft class to win this award wins the market. If none of the four named QBs win MVP before the 2035 season, the "None before 2035" option resolves yes. The award has been overwhelmingly dominated by quarterbacks, with 50 of 54 undisputed winners playing the position.

Background

Six quarterbacks were selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft—Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, Michael Penix Jr., J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix. Jayden Daniels won Rookie of the Year, and Bo Nix led the Broncos to the playoffs, both big successes. Daniels led the Washington Commanders to the NFC Championship Game in his rookie season, while Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Bo Nix made the postseason in their second years.

Considerations

Almost every MVP winner in the last 20 years played for a team with 12 or more wins, typically securing a #1 or #2 seed. Historically, winning MVP as a young QB is difficult—most winners are established veterans. The 2024 class has shown early success, but sustained excellence and team success will be required for any member to capture the award.

This description was generated by AI.