Market for All New (2024 Offseason) Hires:

Pete Carroll a surprise exit!

Vrabel also fired!

Are Belichick and Tomlin 1-2 still?

I like this format a lot but it is also very long range. Some question building:

1. For what range of starting years would this have resolved to (the current reign of) Belichick?

2. If Belichick leaves before Tomlin, for what range of starting years would the question resolve to Tomlin?

3. Now we are on to the important bit: in what past year is the crop interesting enough to retroactively start the same market. 2010? 2012? Maybe ~5 answers alive would be a spot people could bet more actively on and shorten the time-to-resolve by a decade or two?

@Eliza @traders

So the wording might be a bit ambiguous, especially with the fact I put the year hired (I included that just as a matter of interest). I created this market as a super-long term market that started immediately and doesn't retroactively count years that coaches have been in the league.

I meant it to be "Which current NFL coach will be the last one to still be coaching with their team starting from now?" Were other traders also misled or confused about the intent? I'll clean up the wording to make it clear.

As for the more shorter term markets, I have some ideas:

"Will X coach survive longer than half of all the 32 coaches?" with each coach as a YES/NO. Any that are fired/leave resolve as no, until we hit 16, then the rest resolve as "YES". Given the churn of coaches that would be like a 5 yearish time horizon.

Which of the newly hired head coaches starting the 2024-25 season will last the longest? Or be independent and be like "will last 5 years"?

@StopPunting I fully understood the question! No worries. I was suggesting we might see more traders on an alternate version with a smaller pool of coaches and a somewhat shorter expected timeframe. "Which of these coaches from the 2012 (or whatever) season will be the last man standing"

@Eliza Oh yeah I definitely like that. The bigger pool definitely dilutes the value (like a coach expected to get fired getting fired and going from like 2% to 0.9%) isn't going to do much to increase your profit in the short term vs just putting your mana in other markets.

Arthur Smith, and Ron Rivera have been eliminated!

Atlanta has fired Arthur Smith.

Are you able/planning to close the answers where the coach has lost his job?

@JoshuaWilkes Unfortunately not otherwise I would. It's a dependent multiple choice market, so I can only resolve once. I could have made it independent, but that's not really the spirit of the market which is super long term (and with the loan system you can still gradually profit, ideally as more and more liquidity enter). Best I can do is edit the answers to strike them through haha. So free money for fired coaches (if you are ok with temporary loss of liquidity).

@StopPunting haha, in future I will be a bit more discriminating with dumping 1k in

Yeah 1k getting 4% back remaining every night for 1.3% profit long term probably isn't good enough returns to not use the 1k elsewhere if you are a good trader. This was even an issue in the last FG kicker remaining market, I would dump my mana at night into the eliminated kickers at 1.3%. But then eventually find myself withdrawing a lot of it for better opportunities.

Brandon Staley has been eliminated, going out fittingly by losing by 41 points while his starting QB somehow throws for more yards than the opposing QB.

Frank Reich is our first loss! 1 Down, 30 to Go!

Fun market idea

@SethWalder if football/the world survives long enough to resolve it