The Total Bag - What will Tumbles owe when he first is late to pay back a loan?
17
1.4kṀ9884resolved Jun 9
100%99.0%
1,750,001-2,000,000
0.1%
0 - All Loans Successfully Paid Off
0.1%
1-250,000
0.1%
250,001-500,000
0.1%
500,001-750,000
0.1%
750,001-1,000,000
0.1%
1,000,001-1,250,000
0.1%
1,250,001-1,500,000
0.1%
1,500,001-1,750,000
0.1%
2,000,001-2,250,000
0.1%
2,250,001-2,500,000
0.1%
2,500,000-2,750,000
0.1%
2,750,001-3,000,000
0.1%
3,000,000+
Sitting at -$5 Million Mana, Tumbles has all but admitted defeat in personally paying back all his creditors, represented by the (as of writing) 86% probability estimated that he will be late paying back a loan. Despite this, there is a thriving secondary market for "Tumbles' Debt" (and good faith efforts by Tumbles to do what he can to avoid defaulting on loans), implying that there is some belief that somehow Manifold will find a way to maintain the Tumbles Financial Complex as long as it can.
At market creation, Tumbles owes 1,850,199 mana.
Resolves to the overall balance the first date when Tumbles is first late on a loan, regardless if the loan is later paid.
Related:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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