Home State of 2028 US Election Vice-Presidential Winner
Home State of 2028 US Election Vice-Presidential Winner
2
2.1kṀ1202029
7%
Texas
7%
Pennsylvania
6%
Georgia
6%
Arizona
6%
5%
Michigan
5%
North Carolina
5%
Wisconsin
5%
California
5%
Ohio
4%
Kentucky
4%
Virginia
4%
Florida
4%
New York
4%
Illinois
4%
Massachusetts
4%
South Carolina
4%
New Jersey
4%
Minnesota
4%
Colorado
Presidential Winner
Feel free to add your any other states!
Background
The 2028 vice presidential selection will likely be influenced by electoral strategy, geographic balance, and the presidential nominee's home state. Current potential presidential contenders include Gavin Newsom (CA), Josh Shapiro (PA), and JD Vance (OH) among others. Historically, running mates are often chosen from different states than the presidential nominee to broaden electoral appeal and avoid constitutional complications.
Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve based on the home state of the winning vice presidential candidate in the 2028 US presidential election, if there is a clear consensus winner on election week, otherwise whoever is inaugurated on 1/20/2029
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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My back of the envelope math says the 20 states listed above make up about 75% of Americans and the 30 comprising “Other” make up about 25% of the population.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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