Home State of 2028 US Election Vice-Presidential Winner
Home State of 2028 US Election Vice-Presidential Winner
2
2.1kแน€120
2029
7%
Texas
7%
Pennsylvania
6%
Georgia
6%
Arizona
6%
Other
5%
Michigan
5%
North Carolina
5%
Wisconsin
5%
California
5%
Ohio
4%
Kentucky
4%
Virginia
4%
Florida
4%
New York
4%
Illinois
4%
Massachusetts
4%
South Carolina
4%
New Jersey
4%
Minnesota
4%
Colorado

Presidential Winner

Feel free to add your any other states!

Background

The 2028 vice presidential selection will likely be influenced by electoral strategy, geographic balance, and the presidential nominee's home state. Current potential presidential contenders include Gavin Newsom (CA), Josh Shapiro (PA), and JD Vance (OH) among others. Historically, running mates are often chosen from different states than the presidential nominee to broaden electoral appeal and avoid constitutional complications.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on the home state of the winning vice presidential candidate in the 2028 US presidential election, if there is a clear consensus winner on election week, otherwise whoever is inaugurated on 1/20/2029

Get
แน€1,000
to start trading!


Sort by:
5mo

โ€œHome stateโ€ refer to residency and not birthplace, correct?

5mo

@jks let me confer with the person who made the president market I shamelessly copied but yeah I'm guessing residency and will update once they agree

5mo

My back of the envelope math says the 20 states listed above make up about 75% of Americans and the 30 comprising โ€œOtherโ€ make up about 25% of the population.

5mo

yeah but you can throw out Idaho

5mo

@StopPunting ๐Ÿซก ๐Ÿฅ”โžก๏ธ๐Ÿ—‘๏ธ

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโ€™s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
แน€Why use play money?
Mana (แน€) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with แน€1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules