Effective Altruism is a movement whose adherents advocate taking actions that have the highest expected value for improving the lives of current humans and future intelligences. The movement, for example, advocates starting a business that gives money to cancer research rather than becoming an oncologist, because doctors save 5 lives on average while cures for cancers could save more.

Sam Bankman Fried, an effective altruist, ruined millions of lives in 2022 through the FTX cryptocurrency exchange scam. During his trial, an Atlantic correspondent reported his belief that effective altruism was directly responsible for SBF's actions. The reporter believe that SBF recognized the risk of the scam's failure, but had made prior calculations that the potential benefits to EA causes from the money earned would be massive if the scam succeeded.

Taken to its logical end, EA philosophy suggests that it would be rational to take an action that results in the death of one person now if doing so meant that one million lives would be saved in 50 years.

This market attempts to quantify the risk of the EA movement's logical conclusions. Will an adherent take an action that causes someone's death in 2024? This market will resolve YES if that occurs, and NO if it does not.

The following criteria must be met with the standard of a preponderance of the evidence:

• A person must have died.

• The death was directly caused by the action, or the person or organization was negligent and should have foreseen that the action or inaction could cause someone to die.

• The action that caused death was motivated by effective altruism or:

• The person or organization's primary goal was supporting EA causes, and the action could be connected by a reasonable person as a logical application of EA principles.

Examples of qualifying events:

• An EA-motivated scam occurs and rather than going back to work, a now bankrupt retiree prefers suicide.

• A workplace shooter kills top AI scientists, and it is found that the criminal had an extensive Internet history of discussing AI in effective altruist forums.

• An EA-affiliated laboratory releases a pathogen designed to kill mosquitoes, but the lack of mosquitos causes a famine that kills fewer people than are saved by the elimination of malaria.