The Boeing Starliner is currently facing significant problems - 5 engine failures, 5 helium leaks, a water problem, and more. It is undergoing "systems checks" and the mission's return date is now four days later than the originally targeted date.

This market will resolve to YES if an additional unplanned Crew Dragon is sent to the International Space Station to return astronauts to Earth. Extra people can't simply return in an existing "Crew-X" mission, or have more people return in a Soyuz or Dragon that is already docked at the station.

The market will also resolve YES if the Polaris Dawn mission is repurposed or outfitted with additional seats.

If the Starliner capsule lands on Earth with both astronauts onboard, the market will resolve to NO, as will it if the astronauts return to Earth on a previously planned mission.

• Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - If a Crew Dragon is sent to rescue the astronauts using empty seats rather than a different capsule, the market will resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)