The Boeing Starliner is currently facing significant problems - 5 engine failures, 5 helium leaks, a water problem, and more. It is undergoing "systems checks" and the mission's return date is now four days later than the originally targeted date.
This market will resolve to YES if an additional unplanned Crew Dragon is sent to the International Space Station to return astronauts to Earth. Extra people can't simply return in an existing "Crew-X" mission, or have more people return in a Soyuz or Dragon that is already docked at the station.
The market will also resolve YES if the Polaris Dawn mission is repurposed or outfitted with additional seats.
If the Starliner capsule lands on Earth with both astronauts onboard, the market will resolve to NO, as will it if the astronauts return to Earth on a previously planned mission.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - If a Crew Dragon is sent to rescue the astronauts using empty seats rather than a different capsule, the market will resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000
3.00🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ524 | |
| 2 | Ṁ20 | |
| 3 | Ṁ14 | |
| 4 | Ṁ14 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
>"If the Starliner capsule lands on Earth with both astronauts onboard, the marketwill resolve to NO, as will it if the astronauts return to Earth on a previously planned mission."
So if Sunni and Butch return on a planned mission and two astronauts that were planned to return remain on ISS for a future extra SpaceX flight this resolves no even though it is supposed to resolve yes if "an additional unplanned Crew Dragon is sent to the International Space Station to return astronauts to Earth"
Seems a bit of a contradiction?
They could launch Crew-9 with two empty seats so no additional flight is required: https://x.com/SciGuySpace/status/1816501562388390335
@SteveSokolowski
Third 4 day delay to 26th. What were you saying about never pulling the trigger if there are more delays? Still thinking that? If so, why aren't you buying this market up?
In general, almost all of my mana goes into the $150,000 UFO bet market with @EliezerYudkowsky .
That market remains the most overvalued market on this site - I would sell it down to 10%. It continues to correct as time goes on, but for now I think the evidence for non-human intelligence, built over centuries, is much stronger than the odds of the Starliner, which would turn on the whim of a single human's decision. The liquidity in that market is much higher too than almost every other market.
It's not about any specific market in general, it's just that I've already made 70,000M in that market and I have little to play with.
Your decisions are your own of course, but it says you have 28k balance, so I'm confused when you say you have little to play with.