Will there be a space rescue mission before 2035?
17
429
2035
30%
chance

A rescue mission is any mission launched from Earth or a base on another body whose primary intention is to save someone from death.

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predicts YES

Related market of mine. How imminent does the threat of death need to be for a YES resolution? It appears the 3 astronauts assigned to Soyuz MS-22 do not have a way home and will be rescued by subsequent missions.

https://manifold.markets/alangrow/will-the-three-iss-astronauts-assig?referrer=alangrow

@alangrow Is there a significant risk of death if the rescue mission is not launched? Is the purpose of the rescue mission primarily to lower that risk?

predicts YES

@IsaacKing If something were to happen on the ISS that required evacuation, there are now 3 astronauts without a safe way home. The planned rescue mission is primarily meant to lower that risk. However, “significant risk of death” seems like a stretch — it’s highly contingent at present.

predicts YES

@alangrow Then I don't think that really counts as a true rescue mission, though it is close. I think a true rescue mission needs to include some measure of desperation, not "oh no, our 5th level of safeguard has failed, we only have 4 levels remaining. We must repair this posthaste."