Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market close November 2023 below 85%?
resolved Dec 1

Recently, former AARO director Sean Kirkpatrick confirmed that "bits of stories" have been corroborated regarding David Grusch's UFO claims. High-ranking officials are now beginning to seriously consider that non-human intelligence exists in mainstream media articles like this:


Yet, the following market, which is one of the most liquid on Manifold:


continues to hold while other markets involving this topic on Manifold have crashed to an implied 67%:


This market will resolve to YES if the price of the mentioned market is 84% or below on December 1, 2023 at noon EST, or if the mentioned market resolves to NO before then. Note that the time is set to noon so that I can monitor it should this be close. If the mentioned market resolves to N/A before then, this market will also resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.

SEE ALSO: /SteveSokolowski/will-eliezer-yudkowskys-150000-ufo

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The market closed November at 96%, so the resolution is NO.

This kind of market is prone to manipulation, as someone can just spike the main market briefly in order to force this to resolve YES. If your goal is to measure changing opinion, you want something more like this:

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